I'd say within 25 years.  China will surpass us by then. And Europe, since they're bonding together.

I voted for within 25 years as well. China, India, and the EU are all rising up. China is expected to be the wealthiest nation in the world by 2040(and there are more liberal estimates that put that closer to 2030). And India is projected to slip into the number 2 spot by 2060.

The way I heard it was that in another 50 years the order will go kind of like this:

1)China 2)India 3)United States 4)EU 5)Japan

Those will be the major powers, it will be a multi-polar world. The U.S. will not become weak so to say, but it will lose the position of being a hyper-power.

King of the world?  What do you mean?  Surpassed how?  In the economy?  Military?

China is a real problem, much more of a threat to passing America in both the economy and military parts with the rate they're growing.  Europe?  I don't see it.  Not with their lack of military spending, lack of work ethic, the fact that they joined groups that are slowly killing their growth like Kyoto.  And my guess is the EU will dissolve, a lot of groups, important people predicting that.

China has a GDP of nearly 10% and can lose 100 million people in a war and still have over a billion people.  If we don't stop this "free" (expensive) trade garbage with them and their child and slave labor, we could very well be surpassed by them in 25-50 years.

It's going to be an America-China future.  I don't see any other nations coming close.

King of the world?  What do you mean?  Surpassed how?  In the economy?  Military?

China is a real problem, much more of a threat to passing America in both the economy and military parts with the rate they're growing.  Europe?  I don't see it.  Not with their lack of military spending, lack of work ethic, the fact that they joined groups that are slowly killing their growth like Kyoto.  And my guess is the EU will dissolve, a lot of groups, important people predicting that.

China has a GDP of nearly 10% and can lose 100 million people in a war and still have over a billion people.  If we don't stop this "free" (expensive) trade garbage with them and their child and slave labor, we could very well be surpassed by them in 25-50 years.

It's going to be an America-China future. I don't see any other nations coming close.


India is projected to eventually outpace China's economic growth.

India is projected to eventually outpace China's economic growth.


Another downside of outsourcing.

Still, from what I read I don't see India becoming anything on the military front, though they could surpass China and America in economics.

But I'm going for a more military view, and thats where it boils down to just America and China (currently the strongest and second strongest countries on Earth.)

Your right, India is a long way behind China on the military front. And Europe hasn't held much interest on that front, although that could actually change soon if the Franco-German alliance has anything to say about it.

But remember, GWB, you'd much rather have India as a brother superpower than China. India, although it does have some corruption problems, is a functioning democracy. China is still far from that.

It will happen... eventually

But remember, GWB, you'd much rather have India as a brother superpower than China. India, although it does have some corruption problems, is a functioning democracy. China is still far from that.


I'm just going to have to assume you're right.  I don't know much about India, other than they don't like Pakistan.

1953 when they insall the Shah puppet government in iron.  That's when America stopped being the real King of the World, and became Emporer of the World.  The needs of the Republic shall be subortinate to to he needs of the empire.  Our godawful bullying and rancid hypocritical foreign policy making post WWII has more to do with the abdication of the King than even the so-called "Information Age." 
Nationwide, and I credit this to my comrade Michael Parenti whom I saw speak tonight, the lower classes in empires keep the whole phony operation afloat, the imperial class tax the lower classes, and put the national debt on their tab!
That's what British did in the 19the century, the Dutch did in the 16th century, and the Spanish in the 15th century did.  In those cultures the Republic (res publica = the public thing) was destroyed and all became enslaved to the demands the empire.
Look, if you can get people in rented trailers on the planes of Oklahoma to vote for George W. Bush, you've succeeded in one of the greatest propaganda campaigns in the history of mankind.
The idea of the self-blaming serfs in substandard housing and no collective bargaining rights and living in shamfeful fear of God as the fundamentialist preachers scream at him about "hell," "sin," and "revolation" sounds a mite Medieval to me!  But it's here it's not the future, that very thing is happening.  The lions have gotten the vote of the lambs.  Hilary Clinton now sides with Christian fundamentalist and talks about how much she prays every day.  Her most bogus political move to date.  My last shred of respect for Hilary just vanished.  Because she prays?  No, f**k no!  Because she doesn't pray and we all know it.  But Mrs Clinton did pray for more power for herself, and she'll do anything to get it.  That includes handing the Democrats over to the Zell Miller-moonshine-drinking-snake-handlin'-Bible-sweatin' ex-lobotomy religious right!
Yeah, we're not going to talk about Class, Economics, foreign policy, not not this time.  I have my best shot at getting the nomination here!  "We bow down to Jesus."
"What was that, Senator Clinon?"
"I saaayaaazzz we bows down tah Jeeeheysuesss"
You know senator, you really is da phoniest balloniest person out there beside Tom DeLay!  Uh, besides Tom DeLay, or maybe besides him too, it depends.

So you can bet it so.  America's best days are behind her.  Empire is here to scavenge us for everything they can and retire rich!
:o :o

The day someone nails it with a nuke, WTC was just a test.

I am not going to answer the poll, because it really does not have an answer.

As far as India and China passing the US, it all depends on what you mean.  Because you can have all the money in the world, and that does not mean squat if it does not make it to the common people.

India?  Don't make me laugh.  I mean, if she was still alive, Mother Theresa would still be there fighting against poverty.  When was the last time anybody has ever seen a "Mother Theresa" like person, begging the world to send money and food to the impoverished in the US?

And China is in the same boat.  In fact, I am still waiting to see if this is yet another "Great Leap Forward".  For those that have ever studied Chinese history, that is when Mao stripped the country to boost Iron production, then sending it into a tailspin for over a decade, trying to recover.

China and India both have mass poverty, and low general education scores.  Add to that the high population, and it will be many decades until they can come close to the prosperity of the US and Europe.

We are blessed to live in a country with natural recources, natural barriers against enemies, and enlightened form of leadership (democratic elections, which basically allows for peaceful revolutions every 4 years).  We also have a 2 party political system, which while it might get nasty, does not turn homocidal like it does in many places around the world.

We really are lucky (I include Europe, Canada, and other such places in this statement).  Even most of our poor have running water, sewage, electricity, and enough food so they do not starve on a regular basis.  Most even have TVs, cars, even computers Play Station 2, and their own homes.  This is a far cry from having a tin shack next to the railroad tracks, with Pernell Roberts walking by all the time.  :o

So while other countries may pass us in GDP and other figures, unless the people live better lives and have a say in how they live, that does not mean anything.

Some good points, Mushroom, but Russia/USSR was the state that the US considered a major threat for nearly half of last century, and the alleged state of Soviet development was lesser than that currently perceived in China. I can see the American 'rule' of the world coming to an end once the next US pres runs out of soft targets to 'big himself up' & has a go at North Korea- I'd imagine China would side with NK, producing a world-wide stand-off.

I think the term "King of the world" is pretty apt for the way the US government conducts its' foreign policy. Unelected by its' subjects (the rest of the world), prone to egomania, nepotic, unanswerable to its' subjects, interested only in serving & perpetuating itself by stealing what it can from its' subjects while claiming to protect them. Also a presidential inauguration ceremony which resembles a coronation- Very much like English kings of old!

I'd imagine China would side with NK, producing a world-wide stand-off.


That is actually less likely yhen you might think.

Remembe,r China had a generation of young men decimated by the UN (mostly US) forces in the Korean War.  They learned a hard lesson that numbers alone do not equal military victory.

And do not forget, for the last 30+ years, North Korea and China have been having border disputes, sometimes even going as far as having fire fights across their mutual border.  I also have a hard time seeing China risking loosing their "Most Favored Nation" trading staus by siding with North Korea.

One advantage of the "Global Economy" that we now have is that a large export nation like China is going to be less likely to get involved in a war with it's trading partners, because of the potential loss of revenue.

I am not going to answer the poll, because it really does not have an answer.

As far as India and China passing the US, it all depends on what you mean.  Because you can have all the money in the world, and that does not mean squat if it does not make it to the common people.
Funny because that is precisely the goal of Bush's economic plan, to stop the money from making it to the common people.  The want an elite class of imperialists to possess and control all the nation's wealth.

India?  Don't make me laugh.  I mean, if she was still alive, Mother Theresa would still be there fighting against poverty.  When was the last time anybody has ever seen a "Mother Theresa" like person, begging the world to send money and food to the impoverished in the US?  And that's precisely why they are so valuable.  Their workers are fluent in English and will work for peanuts!

And China is in the same boat.  In fact, I am still waiting to see if this is yet another "Great Leap Forward".  For those that have ever studied Chinese history, that is when Mao stripped the country to boost Iron production, then sending it into a tailspin for over a decade, trying to recover.

China and India both have mass poverty, and low general education scores.  Add to that the high population, and it will be many decades until they can come close to the prosperity of the US and Europe. Unfortunately, what's happening in China  is the old Communist bureaucracy is helping a capital investor class become fabulously wealthy, and yet again keeping the wealth safe from the people. 
As for India, again India has three times the population of the U.S.  Don't worry, the elite 10% of India is well educated indeed, and is still poor by U.S. standards.  That's more than enough to pit a whole class of American workers against Indian workers.

We are blessed to live in a country with natural recources, natural barriers against enemies, and enlightened form of leadership (democratic elections, which basically allows for peaceful revolutions every 4 years).  We also have a 2 party political system, which while it might get nasty, does not turn homocidal like it does in many places around the world.

We really are lucky (I include Europe, Canada, and other such places in this statement).  Even most of our poor have running water, sewage, electricity, and enough food so they do not starve on a regular basis.  Most even have TVs, cars, even computers Play Station 2, and their own homes.  This is a far cry from having a tin shack next to the railroad tracks, with Pernell Roberts walking by all the time.   :o

So while other countries may pass us in GDP and other figures, unless the people live better lives and have a say in how they live, that does not mean anything.

India is projected to eventually outpace China's economic growth.


Just thought i'd chip in here..

At the current rate of growth India will very soon be the country with the highest Population. However, although huge, India has nothing like the amount of useable Land China has. This will cause serious problems.

Expect India to invade Sri Lanka and very possibly Pakistan within the next 15-20 years.

Any major war effort like that is going to seriously hurt there budding Economy.

The whole China thing is an interesting conundrum. On one hand you have the fact that they have vast natural resources and are an industrious people, on the other hand you have the fact that the people in China are not happy, every year there are small acts of Rebellion, i expect that within the next 25 or so years (especially when the Poverty gap opens up even more over there) there will be a 'Reveloution' so to speak.

I voted within 25 years, being optimistic.  Paul Kennedy's old book The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers (I think) traced a bunch of them going back to 16th Century Spain.  All did exactly what we are doing now, impoverished their people to support a huge military and incurred massive debt to do it.  The result was declining productivity, declining scientific advances, and an eventual loss of power.  Not too long ago the US lead the world in science and technology, no longer.  Our massive national debt and growing deficits used to be financed internally, by our own banks and insurance companies, now most of it is held and financed by foreigners - mostly Asia, and much of that by, you guessed it, CHINA.  GWB points out that the E.U. does not have a strong military.  Why should they?  We have been providing them with ours for over 50 years.  Never pay for something yourself if you can get someone else to pay for it.  The Soviet strategy during the cold war was to force us to spend ourselves to death.  Instead, we forced them to do it.  This is all documented in declassified government documents. If we don't get smart (I don't mean get Maxwell  ;)) China will do the same to us.

I voted within 25 years, being optimistic.  Paul Kennedy's old book The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers (I think) traced a bunch of them going back to 16th Century Spain.  All did exactly what we are doing now, impoverished their people to support a huge military and incurred massive debt to do it.  The result was declining productivity, declining scientific advances, and an eventual loss of power.  Not too long ago the US lead the world in science and technology, no longer.  Our massive national debt and growing deficits used to be financed internally, by our own banks and insurance companies, now most of it is held and financed by foreigners - mostly Asia, and much of that by, you guessed it, CHINA.  GWB points out that the E.U. does not have a strong military.  Why should they?  We have been providing them with ours for over 50 years.  Never pay for something yourself if you can get someone else to pay for it.  The Soviet strategy during the cold war was to force us to spend ourselves to death.  Instead, we forced them to do it.  This is all documented in declassified government documents. If we don't get smart (I don't mean get Maxwell  ;)) China will do the same to us.

I wouldn't be the first to point out that Bush's people seem to have only one tool at their disposal: a hammer.  The neo-cons, and the war hawks, and the right-wing Zionists all like the hammer, but if you always use the hammer, everything gets smashed.  The clowns that inform Bush somehow thought because we were the biggest dog on the block, we didn't have to get along with NOBODY!  Turns out the E.U., China, Japan, and some other places can really make things difficult for our empire if they're not very happy about everything we do!
::)