Exit Polls Say Bush Won Fair and Square
January 19, 2005
Alex Johnson
MSNBC

(except)

Overestimates of Sen. John Kerry's support in presidential exit polls conducted on Election Day do not support allegiations of fraud, according to an examination of the $10 million system released Wednesday.

The polls overstated Kerry's support by statistically significant margins in 26 states-and President Bush in four others. That was the worst performance since news organizations began using national exit polling in 1988.

News organizations use the data to help shape their coverage on Election Day. No data are supposed to be reported until the polls have closed in each state, but a series of leaked preliminary survey results during the day led many supporters of Kerry to conclude that he had won the election.

When Bush turned out to be the winner, Kerry partisans used the exit polling to insist Republicans had somehow stolen votes, especially in the swing states of Ohio and Pennslyvania, and in districts that were using electronic voting systems for the first time.

'Exit polling does not support allegiations of fraud due to rigging of voting equipment,' the report concluded. 'Our analysis of the difference between the vote count and the exit poll at each polling location in our sample found no systematic differences for precincts using touch screen and optical scan voting equipment.'

Preliminary handing of data from voters questioned earlier in the day overstated the propotion of women who voted, who tended to favor Kerry. The error was corrected for subsquent interim reports, but by then news of Kerry's 'victory' was already rocketing around the World Wide Web.

Full article: http://msnbc.msn.com/id/6840933/

Related links:
http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,144859,00.html

I don't know about "Democrats," but I say, "Who cares?"  Who cares about the inevitable stories of Bush winning fair and square according to such and such and so and so?
Evidentally, he won fair and square in Ohio after that state rigged itself with a separate and unequal polling system.  There was a quick, easy, and friendly polling system for white and Republican districts and a hostile, complicated, confusing, wait-forever polling system for minority and Democratic districts.
Secretary of State Blackwell was Bush's campaign director in Ohio, a naked conflict of interest.  If a Democratic secretary of state was Kerry's manager and did to Republicans what Blackwell did to Dems, you'd never hear the end of it on FOX and MSNBC.  As is, you don't hear a peep on the issue from those corporate flunkies.  Instead they are running inane stories about the exit polls indicating Bush won fair and square.  It's just another day in the life of the Fascist States of America.
(BTW, Ohio is only ONE state and I've barely scratched the surface of the GOP hijinks in that state!)
::)

I don't know about "Democrats," but I say, "Who cares?"  Who cares about the inevitable stories of Bush winning fair and square according to such and such and so and so?
Evidentally, he won fair and square in Ohio after that state rigged itself with a separate and unequal polling system.  There was a quick, easy, and friendly polling system for white and Republican districts and a hostile, complicated, confusing, wait-forever polling system for minority and Democratic districts.
Secretary of State Blackwell was Bush's campaign director in Ohio, a naked conflict of interest.  If a Democratic secretary of state was Kerry's manager and did to Republicans what Blackwell did to Dems, you'd never hear the end of it on FOX and MSNBC.  As is, you don't hear a peep on the issue from those corporate flunkies.  Instead they are running inane stories about the exit polls indicating Bush won fair and square.  It's just another day in the life of the Fascist States of America.
(BTW, Ohio is only ONE state and I've barely scratched the surface of the GOP hijinks in that state!)
::)


Ah yes, "the best democracy money can buy". 

It just goes to show you what you can do when your supporters make the voting machines.




Cat

That maybe the exit polls were cheated on by Republicans too?


Just my humble opinion..

That maybe the exit polls were cheated on by Republicans too?


Just my humble opinion..

You think?  Maybe?  Just maybe?
;)

That maybe the exit polls were cheated on by Republicans too?

No - the exit polls gave Kerry a pretty solid victory... the full article (and I've downloaded the PDF, but haven't had the time to read it yet) starts off with the guy saying how unexpected and unlikely it was for the exit polls to be that far off, but this can be explained by differential voting habits between Repubs & Dems - like I say, I've not read through to the end yet, but I'm interested in his explanation as to why a) this sort of differential hasn't been seen before, but mainly b) why it occurred in counties corresponding to different voting equipment being used.  Do you think there was a feeling amongst Republicans that said "Oh, it's touchscreen voting, so I'll leave it till later"?

...but I'll be back to post something once I've read what the guy actually said to explain why the exit polls were more inaccurate than they've ever been before.

Today's USA Today has written an article on it:

Firms report flaws that threw off exit polls

Kerry backers' willingness, pollsters' inexperience cited

By Mark Memmott
USA Today

The exit polls of voters of election day so overstated Sen. John Kerry's support that, going back to the first exit polls in 1988, they rank as the most inaccurate in a presidential election, the firms that did the work concede.

One reason the surveys were skewed they say, was because Kerry's supporters were more willing to participate than Bush's.  Also, the people they hired to quiz voters were on average too young and too inexperienced and needed more training.

The exit polls, which are supposed to help the TV networks shape their coverage on election night, were shaply criticized.  Leaks of preliminary data showed up on the internet in the early afternoon of election day, fueling talk that Kerry was beating President Bush.  After the election, some political scientists, pollsters and journalists questioned their value.

Vote count off the mark
Going back to at least 1988, exit polls have overstated the support for the democratic presidential candidate.  The average overstatement per precinct in percentage points:

1988: 2.2%
1992: 5.0%
1996: 2.2%
2000: 1.8%
2004: 6.5%

Source: Edison Media Research: Mitofsky International report for the national election pool.

In a report to the six media companies that paid them to conduct the voter surveys, pollsters Warren Mitofsky and Joseph Lenski, said Wednesday that "on average, the results from each precinct overstated the Bush-Kerry difference by 6.5 (percentage) points.  This is the largest overstatement we have observed....in the last five presidential elections."

Lenski said Wednesday that issuing the report was like "hanging out your dirty underwear.  You hope it's cleaner than people expected."

Among the findings:

1. They hired too many relatively young adults to conduct the interviews.  Half of the 1,400 interviewers were younger than 35.  That may explain in part why Kerry voters were more inclined to participate, since he drew more of the youth vote than did President Bush.  But Mitofsky and Lenski also found younger interviewers were more likely to make mistakes.

2. Early results were skewed by a "programming error" that led to the including too many female voters.  Kerry outpolled President Bush among women.

3. Some local officials prevented interviewers from getting close to voters.

For future exit polls, Lenski and Mitofsky recommended hiring more experienced polltakers and giving them better training, and working with election officials to ensure access to polling places.

Lenski and Mitofsky noted that none of the media outlets they worked for, ABC, CBS, CNN, Fox News, NBC, and the Associated Press, made any wrong "calls" on election night.  Representatives of those six are reviewing the report.

Many other news media, including USA Today, also paid to get some of the data.