Posted 10/11/2004 7:57 PM     Updated 10/11/2004 11:23 PM

Complete Campaign 2004 coverage

Bush's approval rating slipping

By Susan Page, USA TODAY

WASHINGTON — President Bush and Sen. John Kerry head toward their third and final televised debate this week with voters increasingly pessimistic about the economy, the war in Iraq and the battle against terrorism, a USA TODAY/CNN/Gallup Poll shows. (Related link: Latest poll results)
Unease about the country's direction has eroded Bush's job approval rating into dangerous territory for an incumbent president. And Kerry holds a decided advantage on the domestic issues that will be the focus of their last face-to-face encounter.

Even so, voters' judgment by 45% to 30% that Kerry did better than Bush in their second debate Friday didn't significantly change the contest between them.

The poll, taken Saturday and Sunday, puts Kerry at 49% and Bush at 48% among likely voters. Independent candidate Ralph Nader is at 1%. That's almost unchanged from the Gallup survey taken a week earlier.

Among all registered voters, Kerry and Bush each had 48%. In the 17 states that both campaigns see as most competitive, Kerry was at 48%, Bush at 45%.

The debate Wednesday is the last chance for voters to see the candidates side-by-side — and the main chance for the candidates to change the dynamics of the campaign in its final, frenetic three weeks.

The 90-minute forum, at Arizona State University in Tempe, begins at 9 p.m. ET.

"We see very strong momentum to John Kerry nationally, particularly in the battleground states," says Mark Mellman, Kerry's pollster. He says the debates have given Kerry an opportunity to outline his proposals and raise questions about Bush's course.

Matthew Dowd, chief strategist for the Bush campaign, says growing concern about terrorism, Iraq and the economy hasn't boosted voters' trust in Kerry to handle those issues. Bush retains an advantage of 17 points on handling terrorism, 7 points on Iraq.

But Bush's approval rating — the most reliable measure of a president's re-election prospects — has dropped to 47%, the lowest since July. Anything below 50% is considered a red flag for incumbents.

Also in the poll:

• Nearly two of three voters call the economy only fair or poor. A plurality says it's getting worse. In September, a plurality said it was getting better.

• Attitudes about Iraq are as negative as they were in May, the previous low point — a time soon after photos of abused Iraqi prisoners had been released and an American contractor beheaded. A 54% majority now says the war wasn't worth it.

• Confidence that the United States is winning the war on terror also slipped a bit, though a majority still express satisfaction with how it's going.

• Kerry is preferred on almost every domestic issue over Bush, with an edge of 29 points on the environment, 19 points on health care, 13 points on the federal budget deficit. He holds an advantage on handling Medicare, Social Security, education and the economy.

USA TODAY/CNN/Gallup Poll:

http://www.usatoday.com/news/politicselections/nation/polls/usatodaypolls.htm

Lets ignore the new Washinton Post and Rausmussen polls....3 different polls have President Bush around 5 or 6 points ahead of Senator Kerry.  And according to EP, the President has at least a 50% Job Approval rating in 6 out of 8 major polls.  Bush leads double digits in EVERY POLL on war on terror, leadership, sticks to position, LOOK AT THE INTERNALS.  Bush leads in Iraq as well, and one poll shows that Bush wins with the so called ''undecides'' by 11 points.  I feel the American people will make the right choice.  Good luck on election day.

''Terrorism and war in Iraq dominate US elections.'' -ABC News.  If this is true who will win?  Sorry the economy and the environment mean nothing.  Anyway after reading this I went and dug up all the most recent polls:

Job Approval:

Approve: 52%  Battleground  10/07/04
Approve: 51%  Time  10/07/04
Approve: 50%  Annenberg  10/06/04
Approve: 49%  Marist  10/05/04

Bush vs. Kerry

WITHOUT NADER:

Bush 49% - Kerry 46%
Battleground  10/07/04
Bush 47% - Kerry 46%
Time  10/07/04
Bush 46% - Kerry 50%
Associated Press - Ipsos  10/06/04
Bush 51% - Kerry 46%
ICR  10/05/04
Bush 48% - Kerry 45%
Fox News  10/04/04

WITH NADER:

Bush 51% - Kerry 46%
ABC - Washington Post  10/09/04
Bush 45% - Kerry 46%
Zogby  10/09/04
Bush 46% - Kerry 45%
Time  10/07/04
Bush 51% - Kerry 45%
ICR  10/05/04
Bush 49% - Kerry 46%
Marist  10/05/04

See and believe what you will. Numbers don't lie.

Perhaps you'd like to post a recent legitimate news article on your defensive opinion/position from a well respected and easily identifiable nationally available news source for all of us to see!

Oh, and a fully functional link would be nice as well, for confirmation, of course.


Show me.  ;)

See and believe what you will. Numbers don't lie.

Perhaps you'd like to post a recent legitimate news article on your defensive opinion/position from a well respected and easily identifiable nationally available news source for all of us to see!

Oh, and a fully functional link would be nice as well, for confirmation, of course.


Show me.  ;)


I just posted a ton of numbers, mostly showing Bush doing well.  D!ck Morris, campaign advisor to Clinton in 1996 says Bush needs to hold his own in the last debate and it is over.

Here is an article from The Washington Dispatch, very respected and well known:

POLLS MOVE IN BUSH'S FAVOR:

http://www.washingtondispatch.com/page2/archives/000640.html

The particular article's a little older (October 9, 2004 05:48 P.M.) than the most recent.

But very good. :) Now, where did those numbers you posted above come from? Just curious.

In your posted article there's a statement along the lines of the Electoral College being in the president’s favor with a 301 to 237 margin and that John Kerry may be making gains in key states, according to a source from CNN.

Well, it is my opinion that Kerry will succeed in gaining in key states, especially in light of the fact that the third debate is Kerry's strongest set of issues and the presidents weakest and also the fact that it will be in the same format as the first debate which also happens to be the president's most uncomfortable.

I am very-much looking forward to this coming Friday!!  :D 

Nothing personal, of course.

Well, it is my opinion that Kerry will succeed in gaining in key states, especially in light of the fact that the third debate is Kerry's strongest set of issues and the presidents weakest and also the fact that it will be in the same format as the first debate which also happens to be the president's most uncomfortable.

I am very-much looking forward to this coming Friday!!  :D 

Nothing personal, of course.


What is on Friday?  I think the debate is this coming Wednesday.  But I'm going off my memory of what Sean Hannity said on his daily radio program today.

Well since, in my opinion, Bush lost the first debate but won the second it is clear that sitting or standing makes all the difference.  When the debates were still being agreed upon by each campaign the Bush-Cheney campaign wanted all sitting debates while the Kerry-Edwards camp wanted all standing debates.  I think Bush wants to sit, badly, but I think his staff will prepare him this time around.  Bush won the standing debate with Al Gore back in 2000 if I remember correctly by over 17 points in the follow-up opinion polls according to USA Today, so Bush can win standing.  Also Bush showed his can handle/hold his ground with Senator Kerry on domestic issues.

I just hope this swing voters swing right like Fred Barnes, executive editor of The Weekly Standard, said.  I just hope they make the correct choice in moving America forward.

Looks like Hairspray picked a fight on GWB's turf!  He's Mister Polls!  I've always maintained I care nothing about polls.  There's too many of them and you can mix and match them to draw any conclusion you want.

I prefer to put my faith in my own convictions.  Anybody who prefers Bush to Kerry (or Bush to a lamp post) on domestic issues is an idiot, present company excluded of course.  If there are more idiots than reasonable people voting on Election Day, so be it, Bush wins and we're all up the creek in a chicken wire canoe!

The next debate IS all on domestic issues and in the same format as the first debate.  OK, Kerry, no more Mr. Nice Guy.  You've got to crush him and pick him out of your tread later, and you can...EASILY.  If you don't, you're an Al Gore-Michael Dukakis and don't even deserve to win the election.  BTW, Al Gore did, in fact, win the election, but he did nothing rhetorically to earn it.

And I don't care what Fred and Barney of the "Weekly Standard" says.  He's never been anything but a waterboy for the far Right.

What is on Friday?  I think the debate is this coming Wednesday. 


It is indeed tomorrow Wednesday. I can hardly wait.  :D

Looks like Hairspray picked a fight on GWB's turf!

No, no, I simply got all excited about the latest news and the poll that went along with it and wanted to share. My excitement's still there regardless of any disagreeing opinions.

Let us all try to stop making commentary so personal. This forum will not survive otherwise.

No, no, I simply got all excited about the latest news and the poll that went along with it and wanted to share. My excitement's still there regardless of any disagreeing opinions.

Let us all try to stop making commentary so personal. This forum will not survive otherwise.



I have been checking the polls that Chucky posted almost everyday and they really fluctuate quite a bit from day to day. Yes, I do get a bit excited when Kerry is up but I also know the next day, he could be down. I have learned not to take too much stock in polls. The only one that really counts is the one on Nov. 2nd.

But, what I don't quite understand with many of these polls, they say that Dubya's job approval rating it down but many would vote for him.  I would think if you don't think someone is doing a good job, wouldn't make sense to replace that person?



Cat

I wonder if Bush the puppet will be wired up again and make an arse out of himself throughout the speech.  I do hope so  ;D

the problem is that several of the hotly contested states are so close, that the margin of error means that it will swing from day to day depending on who ran the last poll. 

There are also a few polling firms that employ what is known as "push-polling".  They ask leading questions, or ask leading questions that help to sawy the response of the person being asked their opinion.  If several polling firms are reporting Bush leads or trails Kerry around two percentage points in, let's say Florida, these "push" polls usually show him winning by 7 or 8 percent. 

Unless I see several polling firms (not just the ones Newsmax follows) report Bush with more than a 5% percent lead, I assume the race is just too close to call. 

I have been checking the polls that Chucky posted almost everyday and they really fluctuate quite a bit from day to day. Yes, I do get a bit excited when Kerry is up but I also know the next day, he could be down. I have learned not to take too much stock in polls.

Hey, you've gotta have faith and be positive!! I refuse to believe the majority of the country would vote against a fresh start for this severely beaten nation and its citizens. I really, truly don't see Bush winning. The power of positive thinking has gotten me through these horrid times we live in, these atrocious last 4 years.

Say it with me, say it loud -

No more Bush. No more of the same. No more!!


But, what I don't quite understand with many of these polls, they say that Dubya's job approval rating it down but many would vote for him.  I would think if you don't think someone is doing a good job, wouldn't make sense to replace that person?

You'd think so and so would I. However, I have found political loyalists to be implausibly stubborn and unwilling to accept change, regardless of the benefit to the nation and themselves - at least publicly.  ;)

Fortunately, in the privacy of the voting booth, the place where you and only you will know absolutely where your final decision will take you, with no witnesses to discredit you personally, no one to judge you, you will decide. The voting booth is the place where you are finally able to express yourself and exercise your right to make-up your own mind no longer influenced by anything or anyone. When one is left alone to make a conscientious decision, a logical self confrontation is inevitable and therein lies the hope that people will end their conflicts and do the right thing. Most people do have the capacity to see in their heart of hearts what is true. I refuse to believe some people to be robots, regardless of whether or not they present themselves in that form. Everyone must face themselves in the end and live with the decisions they make. In my opinion, this election is a special circumstance because our nation and its people haven't had it this bad in a very long time. The problems with this current administration have been and still are evident and very real. I firmly believe that in the end, the people one would least expect will indeed vote for Kerry.

I have to believe that.

Hey, you've gotta have faith and be positive!! I refuse to believe the majority of the country would vote against a fresh start for this severely beaten nation and its citizens. I really, truly don't see Bush winning. The power of positive thinking has gotten me through these horrid times we live in, these atrocious last 4 years.

Say it with me, say it loud -

No more Bush. No more of the same. No more!!



You'd think so and so would I. However, I have found political loyalists to be implausibly stubborn and unwilling to accept change, regardless of the benefit to the nation and themselves - at least publicly.  ;)

Fortunately, in the privacy of the voting booth, the place where you and only you will know absolutely where your final decision will take you, with no witnesses to discredit you personally, no one to judge you, you will decide. The voting booth is the place where you are finally able to express yourself and exercise your right to make-up your own mind no longer influenced by anything or anyone. When one is left alone to make a conscientious decision, a logical self confrontation is inevitable and therein lies the hope that people will end their conflicts and do the right thing. Most people do have the capacity to see in their heart of hearts what is true. I refuse to believe some people to be robots, regardless of whether or not they present themselves in that form. Everyone must face themselves in the end and live with the decisions they make. In my opinion, this election is a special circumstance because our nation and its people haven't had it this bad in a very long time. The problems with this current administration have been and still are evident and very real. I firmly believe that in the end, the people one would least expect will indeed vote for Kerry.

I have to believe that.



I do agree with you. In fact, a few weeks ago, I mentioned to Carlos that I wonder how many Repubs in Congress will in fact vote for Kerry once they are in the voting booth. We MUST hope the this nightmare will end. I keep hearing my sister's words from 4 years ago. She said something to effect "If we are all still here in 4 years." Well, there are many who aren't-thanks to this Admistration. How many more will die if we have 4 more years of the same? Even my mother (the die-heart Republican) is going to vote for Kerry this time (she did vote for Dubya in 2000). She said that she doesn't like either candidate but said that she "guess that I will HAVE to vote for Kerry".

The way I look at it, you are going to have your die-hearts who will follow the party blindly. No matter what is said or done, will not change their minds. But, I personally can't imagine anyone who voted for Gore in 2000 would vote for Dubya in 3 weeks. He may pick up a handful of new voters but I think he is losing more than he will gain. So I am hoping. My stomach has been in a knot since 2000. And I have been waiting for this for the past 4 years. Now, we are in the final stretch, that knot has been increasing. I really can't wait until Nov. 3rd. And hopefully then, that knot in my stomach will be gone.



Cat

I'm dreading complications, tampering, fraud, and equivocation regarding ballots and procedure on election day.  It could create a terrible mess with lots of strife!

The American public will certainly not stand for another seriously questionable election fiasco, I guarantee.

The American public will certainly not stand for another seriously questionable election fiasco, I guarantee.




I hope you are right.



Cat

The American public will certainly not stand for another seriously questionable election fiasco, I guarantee.

In what sense do you mean the "...public will certainly not stand for...."?  It could be disasterous for democracy if Americans think it's for the good of the republic to accept ill-gotten election results.  On the other hand, a fiasco will be inevitable if we discover ballot tampering, illegal ballot rejection, illegal disenfranchisement, blocked access to polls, voter machine monkey business, or other shenannigans on election day.  I'd rather have a fiasco and civil unrest than a great knuckling under to the GOP's fascism.

In what sense do you mean the "...public will certainly not stand for...."?  It could be disasterous for democracy if Americans think it's for the good of the republic to accept ill-gotten election results.  On the other hand, a fiasco will be inevitable if we discover ballot tampering, illegal ballot rejection, illegal disenfranchisement, blocked access to polls, voter machine monkey business, or other shenannigans on election day.  I'd rather have a fiasco and civil unrest than a great knuckling under to the GOP's fascism.

\
My fear is that the public will stand for a fraudulant election, and that we will have one.

My fear is that the public will stand for a fraudulant election, and that we will have one.

After the last one, I can see where that fear comes from...

One can only hope that Kerry gets so many more votes that there is no chance of a credible fraud - has anyone else read "The Stainless Steel Rat for President", by any chance?

I'm not that concerned about fraud anymore.

If one really thinks about it, a questionable outcome would absolutely not be accepted by the American public, especially when considering the very heavy price we've all paid for accepting the questionable results of the last election.

Nah, I would first see a revolution within our nation before our submitting ourselves again to questionable results that would lead to 4 more years of Bush.

I fully believe we as a nation have learned our lesson.

I'll go further and predict that John F. Kerry will win this 2004 election by an overwhelming majority in a surprising upset to the Busheeshes; thus, eliminating whatever chance in hell Bush and his cronies may have to corrupt the end result.

I'm not that concerned about fraud anymore.

If one really thinks about it, a questionable outcome would absolutely not be accepted by the American public, especially when considering the very heavy price we've all paid for accepting the questionable results of the last election.

Nah, I would first see a revolution within our nation before our submitting ourselves again to questionable results that would lead to 4 more years of Bush.

I fully believe we as a nation have learned our lesson.

I'll go further and predict that John F. Kerry will win this 2004 election by an overwhelming majority in a surprising upset to the Busheeshes; thus, eliminating whatever chance in hell Bush and his cronies may have to corrupt the end result.


I very much hope you are right.  I'll join you in the streets (figuratively) when the Repubs try to steal this one.

I'll join you in the streets (figuratively) when the Repubs try to steal this one.


And literally if they do and get away with it.

As I said before, Kerry will win. So it's all good. :)

And literally if they do and get away with it.

As I said before, Kerry will win. So it's all good. :)


By figuratively I meant the I will be in the streets here, not where you are, but we will be together in spirit.  And we don't have to fear the National Guard (as a Kent State), they are all in Iraq...

By figuratively I meant the I will be in the streets here, not where you are, but we will be together in spirit.

I was actually thinking more along the lines of joining together in a mass protest on to the streets of Washington! :o :D ;D