As the post-primary season winds down and Kerry's VP selection and convention approach, I wanted to share with you what we should expect polls to show in early August. 

An examination of Gallup polls in presidential elections since 1976 reveals that a challenger's vice presidential selection and nominating convention can have a dramatic (if often short-lived) effect on the head-to-head poll numbers.  In fact, historical analysis suggests John Kerry should have a lead of more than 15 points coming out of his convention. 

As the below chart illustrates:

1. An average of the most recent public polls shows the race is a dead heat. 
2. Assuming that Kerry enjoys the average "challenger's bounce" (15.4% since 1976), we should expect the state of the race to swing wildly to his favor by early August.

Democrats themselves expect Kerry to have a sizeable lead after his convention.  On Face the Nation on Sunday, DNC head Terry McAuliffe said, "We are about to pick our vice presidential nominee.  We're about to go into a convention of four days and I think once we finish up our convention, I think you're going to see Senator Kerry anywhere from eight to twelve points up



--Remember even Mondale got this same 15 point bounce and he lost by the largest margin in U.S. history.  I'm just warning you because the democrats will be going insane, but don't worry our convention isn't far behind.