Alright, I have a hobby of collecting old video game magazines (and saving all my old ones I got when I was a kid).  I do this for nostalgia, to read about things from a different point of view (its one thing to read about an era after it occurs, its another to read stuff about the era as its going on).  While doing this, I managed to find an issue from December 1999 making predictions for stuff that would be big in the 2000-2002 timeframe (start of the next video game generation).  I figured I'd share some of these predictions with you, in case you're interested in what video gamers in 1999 thought the near future (2000-2002) was going to be like.  Some of their predictions were accurate, some were dead wrong, and others were only off by a few years.  I personally find it quite interesting, and kind of funny in some places, and I hope you will too.  Here we go:

- Game Boy Cell Phone: Nintendo filed a patent in 1999 for the creation of a Nintendo Game Boy that doubled as a cell phone.  As a result, they were convinced that Nintendo was going to come out with a Game Boy that doubled as a cell phone within the next couple years.  Cut to 2007 and the only handheld system to even try doubling as a cell phone was the Nokia N-Gage, which fail so miserably it was pathetic.  So much for this prediction.  They also predicted that the Game Boy Advance would have the functions of a cheap PDA.  The PSP kind of fits that description, but it came out 4 years after the Game Boy Advance.

- VMU: For those who don't know, the VMU was the standard memory card for the Sega Dreamcast that also doubled as a very primitive handheld system.  You could download mini games onto it, use it to unlock secrets in games, etc.  They predicted that Sony and Nintendo would soon make their own versions of this, as it was so innovative and cutting edge.  This didn't happen...although Nintendo did try a whole "Game Boy Advance-Gamecube" connectivity thing that was somewhat similar.  They abandoned it after a year or two.

- Playstation 2: This is dead on right here, except for the little details.  Ken Kutaragi, maker of PS1,PS2, and now PS3, insisted that you'd be able to make your own games on PS2 and you'd be able to access a virtual city in the PS2 ("You ever seen the Matrix?  Next year, you'll be able to jack into the Matrix!"  Yes, he actually said that).  Turns out Kutaragi was BSing the whole time, although PS3's new PSHome service debuting this year somewhat resembles the virtual city concept.

- DVD: Alright, a prediction that is perfectly correct!  

- Online Gaming: This is somewhat right.  I say somewhat because it happened, but only on Dreamcast and Xbox.  Gamecube didn't have online play at all and the PS2 didn't get online play until 2003...and even then, the amount of PS2 players online was a very small minority.  It happened, it just took slower than they thought it would.

- Broadband becomes commonplace: Here in 2007, 40% of American homes have broadband.  In 2004, that was 15%.  Another case of the prediction being right, but not occurring as fast as they thought.

- Downloadable games on cell phones: Correct!  They were doing this in Japan in 1999, so its not like it was unheard of though.

These are some of the predictions that they thought would occur in the video game and technology world by 2002 at the very latest.  Some were true, others were off a bit, and others are more technologically advanced than stuff now (making games on your PS2?  Can't do that now on PS3!).  Looks to me like video gamers (and people in general) thought the future would be a bit more advanced than it turned out to be.  I suppose with technology changing so much in the second half of the 90s, they thought the pace would only accerlerate.  Turns out they overestimated the future.

EDIT: I really need to find out a way to shorten my posts.

Great post!


- Online Gaming: This is somewhat right.  I say somewhat because it happened, but only on Dreamcast and Xbox.  Gamecube didn't have online play at all and the PS2 didn't get online play until 2003...and even then, the amount of PS2 players online was a very small minority.  It happened, it just took slower than they thought it would.


Online gaming became huge with PCs. Games like Ultima Online, Everquest, Neopets, World of Warcraft, etc.

Console systems really missed the boat with online gaming. Some games are best with PC anyway: how the heck would you easily hotkey 90 things with a 7-10 button controller?


EDIT: I really need to find out a way to shorten my posts.


;)


Ant

I remember Dreamcast having the modem back in 99, and it was definitely a pretty cool thing nobody had tried that before on a console. Online gaming on consoles really didn't takeoff however until Microsoft got it right with the terrific Xbox Live service. Broadband in 1999 was an up and coming thing to me, I was aware of it definitely but it was something that was really new and few had it yet. Now seeing 40% having broadband right now, that kind of seems small, amazing that so many people are still suffering through the pain of dial up lol. DVDs path was clear in 1999, VHS clearly was done at that time to me.

Yeah, I have a bunch of old video game magazines from the '90s. I've got a couple from the 1999-2001 time period, but I've also got some dating as far back as 1991.

I remember all the rumors going around about everything that the PS2 was going to be able to do. I even remember hearing about the PS2 having downloadable content like the PS3 and Xbox 360 have today, but that never came close to happening. The hype surrounding the PS2 throughout 1999/2000 was so big, that it was never matched before, and I don't think ever will be again.

Yeah, I remember hearing some of this, too. I also have an affinity for looking at people's thoughts on things as they actually happened. I have some Nintendo Power magazines from the 1991-1994 time that have discussions on gaming from that era. Maybe I'll scan some of those articles sometime.

I agree if you look at 1999 from the perspective as it actually happened, it would've seemed like things (in all areas) would've changed at a freight train pace. Especially with the rise of the Internet and at least the beginning of cell phones and such, it made even 1996 look quite old school at the time. I bet someone from then would think this was only about 2002 or '03. Seeing a PSP wouldn't be too surprising.

P.S. I'm a sucker for long, detailed posts. ;)

Yeah, I remember hearing some of this, too. I also have an affinity for looking at people's thoughts on things as they actually happened. I have some Nintendo Power magazines from the 1991-1994 time that have discussions on gaming from that era. Maybe I'll scan some of those articles sometime.

I agree if you look at 1999 from the perspective as it actually happened, it would've seemed like things (in all areas) would've changed at a freight train pace. Especially with the rise of the Internet and at least the beginning of cell phones and such, it made even 1996 look quite old school at the time. I bet someone from then would think this was only about 2002 or '03. Seeing a PSP wouldn't be too surprising.

P.S. I'm a sucker for long, detailed posts. ;)


This is off topic, but that thing about the technology of 1999 making 1996 look old school reminds me of a South Park episode.  In one of their 1999 episodes, they discover a frozen "caveman."  When they unthaw him, they find out hes from the year 1996, just three years ago.  However, they treat him like an ancient caveman because "the prehistoric caveman from 1996 can't live in our time."  They even go as far as to feature him in an exhibit at the museum in his natural habitat that is "everything 1996", including Independence Day and Fargo posters, as well as Ace of Base (even though they peaked in popularity in 1994).  He also can't handle modern times and is portrayed as an uncivilized caveman, as he trashes the tv when he sees the Atlanta Falcons are playing in the Super Bowl and does the same thing later when he sees Marilyn Manson on tv.

He winds up moving to Des Moine, Iowa because the kids free him from the museum and convince him that Iowa is two years behind, which is good enough for him.

Can't see an episode like that today.  "Prehistoric Caveman of 2004" just wouldn't have the same effect.