Well there has been lots of argument in the public forum as to whether or not we are in a recession or headed into one.

My business is one of the ‘“leading indicators” of economic activity. I can tell you that for the past 3 weeks, business has been harder and harder to come by, and our competitors are pretty much in the same boat. Usually we can take more business that we physically can do, and have LOTS of business that we contract out to other companies in our sector.

But now we’re having to hustle HARD just to keep our own equipment running, and those subcontractors are calling us, offering price cuts, the whole bit. But the price cuts don’t work when there’s no business to hand out. Last time I saw things drop off this fast was 2008.  :o

Hold on for the ride, folks…  :-\\

Yeah, if it's not here it's pretty close. Once the recession is officially declared the start date is usually retroactive since it's based on multiple (2 or more quarters of negative numbers), like in 2008 when they finally declared that we've been in a recession since late 2007. Although the reasons to believe we aren't in one are because of the strong jobs report and low unemployment numbers.

With the recent Fed hike increases and inflation at a 40-year high, I won't be surprised if we're in a recession now or next year.

From the BBC

Recession risk rises as economy unexpectedly shrinks
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-63225328

Freight volumes have already been shrinking now for like 2 months. Especially the past 3 weeks. 

It’s here and it’s real.  :o

Fitch predicts the recession to be mild, similar to the one in the early 1990's.

https://www.cnn.com/2022/10/18/economy/fitch-inflation-recession-spring/index.html

Awesome....why not? Everything sucks

Was talking to one of my customers who is in the steel business. Huge company.

Their order intake level is abysmal. The phones simply are not ringing. They;re seeing orders at less than half the rate that they normally would.

The GDP report for Q3 just released and it grew around 2.5% mostly due to a rebalancing of imports and exports, though it's expected to be the last good report for awhile.

IMO, the reason for inflation stems from ONE thing-the greed of the oil companies. They raise their prices and everything else falls like dominoes. Transportation for goods cost more so manufacturers have to increase their prices. Because they raise their prices, people aren't buying as much.

Because of Putin's war, that is another excuse to raise prices on oil. And now the oil companies and OPEC are playing this game about not releasing as much oil which in turn will raise prices even more. This is why we (as in the general sense of the word "WE") NEED to get away from fossil fuels. Much of the industry is run by dictators like Putin and MBS in Saudi Arabia. Personally, I think with them doing that, they are shooting themselves in the foot because I think more and more people will be going to electric cars, heat pumps and other things that will not need oil.


Cat

IMO, the reason for inflation stems from ONE thing-the greed of the oil companies. They raise their prices and everything else falls like dominoes. Transportation for goods cost more so manufacturers have to increase their prices. Because they raise their prices, people aren't buying as much.

Cat


It’s supply and demand. Russian oil and gas gets boycotted so that cuts the supply. Economics 101.

Now here’s an odd result. I am in the transportation business, and higher oil prices actually “juice” our profits. Why?  (1) Drilling activity increases, so we transport more oil country pipe as well as steel going to the pipe mills.

And (2) Oddly shippers pay a fuel surcharge that is supposed to compensate for the price increases on fuel, but due to their ineptness, they pay more “fuel money” than is really needed. So we pocket the difference. We have one customer whose fuel surcharge presently pays enough money to fuel the truck - TWICE.

I personally know quite a few people in the IT sector who have been laidoff recently. Of course Twitter, then Meta, and Amazon have been the high profile cases of massive layoffs, but other companies are as well. Right before Christmas too.

The housing market is expected to drop in 2023, but not as bad as 2008. The circumstances are different this time around as back then there were a lot of predatory lending, subprime mortgages, and ARM's.

https://www.cnn.com/2022/11/22/opinions/housing-market-mortgage-rates-lundh/index.html

The housing market is expected to drop in 2023, but not as bad as 2008. The circumstances are different this time around as back then there were a lot of predatory lending, subprime mortgages, and ARM's.

https://www.cnn.com/2022/11/22/opinions/housing-market-mortgage-rates-lundh/index.html


It’s already started. Shipments of wallboard and lumber are already waaaaay down.

The US is on the brink of defaulting in debt. Let's hope POTUS and SOTH can work out a deal with the Treasury Department. They have until June 1st.

A compromise and a debt ceiling deal has been made.