(Reuters) - Two ex-Federal Reserve officials, now freed from having to set economic policy and be accountable for it, are warning the U.S. central bank will have to raise interest rates more than expected and the outcome could well be a recession - cautions neither voiced before leaving their posts a few months ago.



The remarks this week from the Fed's two most recent vice chairs - Richard Clarida, who until January served as one of Chair Jerome Powell's top lieutenants for monetary policy formation and Randal Quarles, who oversaw banking regulation to the end of last year - rank among a small chorus of other former U.S. central bankers now offering up critiques of where Fed policy stands and is headed.

I'm still hearing a mix of it coming while others are saying it's averted. Kind of like a 50/50 chance of rain. I also read an article about the possibility of an energy crisis, like the one in the 1970's.

According to Goldman Sachs the economy will slow to a crawl but will dodge a recession.

https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/currencies/us-economy-no-recession-but-sharp-slowdown-fed-hikes-goldman-2022-6

I remember they were saying the saying the same things in 2006 and 2007, that either the recession won't happen or won't be that bad, but we saw how it really turned out.

The stocks have now entered a bear market.

Making this thread before it's announced

Good idea. That way we all get a jump start on it, your honor.

It might happen by the end of this year if not next year. The trends and signs are similar to what was happening around 2006.

Anyhow there's also this thread:

http://www.inthe00s.com/index.php?topic=63996.0

Can they be merged?

(Reuters) - Two ex-Federal Reserve officials, now freed from having to set economic policy and be accountable for it, are warning the U.S. central bank will have to raise interest rates more than expected and the outcome could well be a recession - cautions neither voiced before leaving their posts a few months ago.



The remarks this week from the Fed's two most recent vice chairs - Richard Clarida, who until January served as one of Chair Jerome Powell's top lieutenants for monetary policy formation and Randal Quarles, who oversaw banking regulation to the end of last year - rank among a small chorus of other former U.S. central bankers now offering up critiques of where Fed policy stands and is headed.


Seems like the whole economy is going down the toilet. 🚽

We could find out that we've officially already been in a recession since the beginning of the year in late July, if Q2 also showed a contraction like Q1 did. Recession declaration is usually retroactive, that's why we didn't know until mid-2008 that we've been in a recession since Q4 of 2007.

Time to scout out some good buys in the market

Time to scout out some good buys in the market


Nikola Motor. Ultimately I think it will fail, but it still has a dead cat bounce left in it.

The first estimate came in showing that the economy (GDP) contracted just under 1% in Q2 which would by definition be considered a recession. They are still waiting for a few more estimates to before officially calling it.

https://www.cnn.com/2022/07/28/economy/us-economy-second-quarter-gdp/index.html

I deal with large manufacturers, and I can tell you that all of them are scaling back spending and hiring, expecting a slowdown to occur. Material traders are being VeRY cautious on what they buy, so as to avoid getting stuck with product they can’t sell in a slowdown. Which could mean we have a self fulfilling prophesy around the corner.

I deal with large manufacturers, and I can tell you that all of them are scaling back spending and hiring, expecting a slowdown to occur. Material traders are being VeRY cautious on what they buy, so as to avoid getting stuck with product they can’t sell in a slowdown. Which could mean we have a self fulfilling prophesy around the corner.


That's how recessions usually start isn't it?

Recessions by technical definition are usually just numbers on paper. What really matters since it's what effects most people is the labor market. The late 2000's Recession may have officially ended some time in 2009, but it felt like we were in it until around 2012 before the job market finally started showing signs of growth.

Making this thread before it's announced

Lets hope it isnt!! (Doesnt happen)

But I have been hearing of it also...They tried to avoid it in 2008.

At least the good news is that the job market and unemployment levels are back to where they were pre-pandemic.