https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/u-s-bond-yield-curve-1.5068062

One of the most closely watched predictors of a potential recession just yelped even louder.

The signal lies within the bond market, where investors show how confident they are about the economy by their level of demand for U.S. government bonds.

It's called the "yield curve," and a significant part of it flipped Friday for the first time since before the Great Recession: A Treasury bill that matures in three months is yielding 2.45 per cent — 0.02 percentage points more than the yield on a Treasury that matures in 10 years.

This warning signal has a fairly accurate track record. A bellwether for the economy is that when the 10-month Treasury yield falls below the three-month yield, a recession may hit in about a year. Such an inversion has preceded each of the last seven recessions, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.

The last time a three-month Treasury yielded less than a 10-year Treasury was in late 2006 and early 2007, before the Great Recession made landfall in December 2007.

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More information in the article.

Scary stuff. After the last recession, I'm not ready for another one.  :-[

Aren’t we due a recession around now? I remember one being predicted for 2018 a few years ago.

Scary stuff. After the last recession, I'm not ready for another one.  :-[


The last one was a Great Recession.

Aren’t we due a recession around now? I remember one being predicted for 2018 a few years ago.


We are long overdue for one. At least in the post-WWII era, this is the longest we’ve gone between recessions.

The last one was a Great Recession.


Delete this post.

We are long overdue for one. At least in the post-WWII era, this is the longest we’ve gone between recessions.


To quote Pete Clemenza,

”These things have to happen every five, ten years. Gets rid of the bad blood. Been ten years since the last one.”

Recessions are pretty normal things to happen, to the point of one happening literally every turn-of-the-decade. I don't think it's the right thing to do is to panic ???. I also don't see this one becoming as big as the 2008 one considering it happened due a massive housing bubble that grew over the mid-2000s, and that the economies troughout the Western World only have switched off the "recovery mode" only very few years ago ???

Recessions are pretty normal things to happen, to the point of one happening literally every turn-of-the-decade. I don't think it's the right thing to do is to panic ???. I also don't see this one becoming as big as the 2008 one considering it happened due a massive housing bubble that grew over the mid-2000s, and that the economies troughout the Western World only have switched off the "recovery mode" only very few years ago ???


The thought of a recession terrifies me. I'm sure many members have similar stories but I lost my job in the last one in 2009 and that's when I felt I hit rock bottom in life (it still is my darkest moment tbh, but for other reasons too). I remember all the shops on my street shutting down and my friends' parents losing their jobs and having to move away or not being able to afford to go out and have fun anymore. I hope this one isn't as bad. 

Delete this post.


It’s actually often referred to as ‘the Great Recession’ like the Great Depression. Not that it was a great thing to happen, just very severe.

Also, some recessions can be quite mild, like in 1990 and 2001. But they’re natural parts of the business cycle, and they do all end, sure enough.

The thought of a recession terrifies me. I'm sure many members have similar stories but I lost my job in the last one in 2009 and that's when I felt I hit rock bottom in life (it still is my darkest moment tbh, but for other reasons too). I remember all the shops on my street shutting down and my friends' parents losing their jobs and having to move away or not being able to afford to go out and have fun anymore. I hope this one isn't as bad.


Thankfully nobody in my family lost their job. We did okay, all things considered. The biggest impact was the increase in the overall cost of living. It was very noticeable how the same shopping bill in 2009 bought less than in 2008.

It’s actually often referred to as ‘the Great Recession’ like the Great Depression. Not that it was a great thing to happen, just very severe.

Also, some recessions can be quite mild, like in 1990 and 2001. But they’re natural parts of the business cycle, and they do all end, sure enough.


I know that, but LyricBoy was making a pun ;D

The early '90s recession was terrible here, it was almost as bad as the Great Recession. We didn't have an early 2000s recession,

I’m just glad I finally got a new job before the recession hit. At worst, I’ll just go back to temp work.

I know that, but LyricBoy was making a pun ;D

The early '90s recession was terrible here, it was almost as bad as the Great Recession. We didn't have an early 2000s recession,
Kuddos to you guys. The early 00s one is pretty forgotten thanks to the great resscison in 08 and also because 9/11 made us forget about the recession.