This situation sounds a bit familiar: Big mighty nation invading smaller nation to bring about regime change. Hmmmm-sounds a little like what happened 5 years ago when the U.S. invaded Iraq. So, now the U.S. is trying to play World Police by telling Russia to get out or else. Or else what? Russia knows that the U.S. doesn't have the strength left after being involved in not one but TWO wars to do anything about it. This is a case of "do as I say and not as I do". I'm sure Bush's buddy "Count Vlad's" reaction is http://l.yimg.com/us.yimg.com/i/mesg/emoticons7/24.gif  Well, you know what Bush said, "I looked the man in the eye. I found him to be very straightforward and trustworthy. We had a very good dialogue. I was able to get a sense of his soul; a man deeply committed to his country and the best interests of his country." Birds of a feather.  ::) ::)


Thoughts? Comments?


Cat

Georgia is smaller.

What the problem is that no one will step-up and once America stands up, it's like the world is saying "Oh sheesh, America is there to save another country".

Russia is about to leave, but this is more of an invasion of an innocent country, not like what the U.S. did to Iraq (That's more like Vietnam.) More like Iraq invading Kuwait or Germany invading Poland.

I can't predict the future, but Russia is supposed to be part of the apocolyptic tribes. Let me give you a tidbit of what may happen....

2009-Obama gets elected and he sends our troops home. Suddenly, Iran invades Israel with Russia as their Allies. Obama sends the troops to Iran. Other European Nations follow suit and World War III begins. This war lasts for three years.

2012-Obama's Approval Rating is low and the Ku Klux Klan who have been silent for 50 years speaks out against Obama but wins the Election while America ends WWIII. This would be the year that the world supposedly ends and the Rapture begins.

2013-2020-Obama's dark side appears. Whoever disapproves him will die. Whoever isn't a supporter of him will die. Jeruselem is destroyed and the Temple will be reconstructed. Pope Benedict XVI will speak out and both him and Obama will be worshiped. Then...the end will be here.

Like I said, I may be wrong but it seems that it's bound to happen.

Cat, the USA will not do anything about this.  it is not in our interest to get involved other than the basic "window dressing" protestations and soap-box standing.

When I studies international politics and economy at the University of Chicago, or Professor, Marvin Zonis, said that if you want to see how any international situation is going to play out, just ask yourself "who cares"?  At the time all hell was breaking loose in Rwanda, and he accurately predicted that the international community would do nothing, because basically nobody cared.  perhaps a cold approach to things but it was indeed accurate.

Same thing is playing out in Darfur.  The USA is doing little (what do we get out of it) and the Chinese are supporting the givernment (due to various chinese oil projects there).  What people "care" about drives their actions internationally.

Now back to Georgia and the Russkies.  The USA does not care.  We know that the Russians are not gonna shut off the oil pipeline, if anything they'll milk it for what it is worth.  The Russians will not cause Georgia to fall into the hands of anarchists and terrorists, so what do we care?  So we will do nothing, we have little interest there.  And we know that Russia will not invade Turkey because all hell WOULD break loose from the USA if that ever happened.  Turkey is a key strategic US interest.

Yeah, Russia's invasion of Georgia may ruffle some feathers over here but in the end it matters little to us.  So we'll do little about it.

Cat, the USA will not do anything about this.  it is not in our interest to get involved other than the basic "window dressing" protestations and soap-box standing.

When I studies international politics and economy at the University of Chicago, or Professor, Marvin Zonis, said that if you want to see how any international situation is going to play out, just ask yourself "who cares"?  At the time all hell was breaking loose in Rwanda, and he accurately predicted that the international community would do nothing, because basically nobody cared.  perhaps a cold approach to things but it was indeed accurate.

Same thing is playing out in Darfur.  The USA is doing little (what do we get out of it) and the Chinese are supporting the givernment (due to various chinese oil projects there).  What people "care" about drives their actions internationally.

Now back to Georgia and the Russkies.  The USA does not care.  We know that the Russians are not gonna shut off the oil pipeline, if anything they'll milk it for what it is worth.  The Russians will not cause Georgia to fall into the hands of anarchists and terrorists, so what do we care?  So we will do nothing, we have little interest there.  And we know that Russia will not invade Turkey because all hell WOULD break loose from the USA if that ever happened.  Turkey is a key strategic US interest.

Yeah, Russia's invasion of Georgia may ruffle some feathers over here but in the end it matters little to us.  So we'll do little about it.



That is my point. The U.S. becomes the world's "police" when there is $$$$$ involved but if there is humanity involved, it can't be bother.  ::)


I just think that "Count Vlad" is taking a page out of Dubya playbook and I wouldn't be surprise if Dubya wasn't secretly saying, "Way to go, Vlad".



Cat

That is my point. The U.S. becomes the world's "police" when there is $$$$$ involved but if there is humanity involved, it can't be bother.  ::)


I just think that "Count Vlad" is taking a page out of Dubya playbook and I wouldn't be surprise if Dubya wasn't secretly saying, "Way to go, Vlad".



Cat


Well...Count Vlad had negotiations with the French. So there's nothing to worry about...for now.

I don't think Saakashvili is blameless in this: ISTM that he thought that Russia wasn't going to do anything while he trampled on the Ossetians (which, given their history and with Putin at the helm, is more than just naive).  The Ossetian separatists were Russian-supported, though, so the Russkis had already been meddling.

I blame Stalin (another Georgian): he's the one who made sure that national boundaries in that region split ethnic ones - presumably he did that intentionally so that there'd always be the petty in-fighting that means that nobody's really going to trouble Russia...

I don't think Saakashvili is blameless in this: ISTM that he thought that Russia wasn't going to do anything while he trampled on the Ossetians (which, given their history and with Putin at the helm, is more than just naive).  The Ossetian separatists were Russian-supported, though, so the Russkis had already been meddling.

I blame Stalin (another Georgian): he's the one who made sure that national boundaries in that region split ethnic ones - presumably he did that intentionally so that there'd always be the petty in-fighting that means that nobody's really going to trouble Russia...


Just the same way that the Europeans messed up Africa and the Middle East after WWI.  No wonder the world is so f***d up.

Yep, sure is.  Sigh.

Anyway, I finished writing the "Marching Through Georgia parody"

I don't think Saakashvili is blameless in this: ISTM that he thought that Russia wasn't going to do anything while he trampled on the Ossetians (which, given their history and with Putin at the helm, is more than just naive).  The Ossetian separatists were Russian-supported, though, so the Russkis had already been meddling.

I blame Stalin (another Georgian): he's the one who made sure that national boundaries in that region split ethnic ones - presumably he did that intentionally so that there'd always be the petty in-fighting that means that nobody's really going to trouble Russia...


Stalin was one of the most evil human beings ever to walk the face of the Earth.  I don't thik Putin or Saakashvili is anywhere near the bad mofo Stalin was!

http://www.inthe00s.com/smile/05/frankie.gif

Look, we made it through the Cold War.  Are we going to blow it all over some half-assed operation like Georgia?
???

Look, we made it through the Cold War.  Are we going to blow it all over some half-assed operation like Georgia?
???


We don't give a rat's rump about Georgia.  And yes Sakashvili is not blameless.  He tugged on Superman's cape and then Superman opened up a fresh can of whoop ass.  Maybe two.

Maybe ol' Putin has a special place in his heart for Georgia...

Georgia we will be together dear
If they ever let me out of here
I won't say that it's not true
But I didn't invade you
Georgia won't you tell them for me dear?

We don't give a rat's rump about Georgia.  And yes Sakashvili is not blameless.  He tugged on Superman's cape and then Superman opened up a fresh can of whoop ass.  Maybe two.

Maybe ol' Putin has a special place in his heart for Georgia...

Georgia we will be together dear
If they ever let me out of here
I won't say that it's not true
But I didn't invade you
Georgia won't you tell them for me dear?


I wonder how many Americans think they're talking about the state of Georga? 

Indeed, we don't give a rat's patooty about Georgia, but we do care about, gulp, Russian aggression.  All we have to do is shut up and do nothing during their pogroms and they won't do anything during our pogroms!  We could hand back the Russians the Soviet empire.  For Dubya to get out and condemn their aggression is just risible!
::)

I wonder how many Americans think they're talking about the state of Georga? 



Probably more than either you or I would ever want to know..  :-\\

Georgia controls quite a bit of oil flow.  Most of it stays in Europe. If Russia wanted all control back that it had before the USSR started falling apart they're going about it the wrong way. Come to think of it, they can't go back to having control over the Baltic.  Wonder which coutry is going to have the guts to tell Russia to wake up and smell the coffee?

This situation sounds a bit familiar: Big mighty nation invading smaller nation to bring about regime change. Hmmmm-sounds a little like what happened 5 years ago when the U.S. invaded Iraq.

Actually, the situation is very different.  And it is one repeating itself in many areas once controlled by the former Soviet Union.

Ever since Mr. Putin became President of Russia, they have been flexing their muscles, and putting increasing pressure on their former "Member Nations", basically telling them to return to Mother Russia or else.  Georgia, Ukraine, Poland, and many other nations are feeling increased pressure, much like what they had during the Cold War.

The current situation would be more like the UK invading India, and demanding it return to the Commonwealth.

And to show how nervous some nations are getting, Poland today signed an agreement with the US to base Missile Defense systems in Poland.  That means 10 Batteries of Patriot Missiles (2 Battalions) will soon be on their way to Poland.  And this not only involves Poland, but the Czech Republic.  Because the missiles will be linked into a radar system already in place with that former Soviet controlled nation.

And Russia is already threatening to respond to this agreement.  Their Foreign Minister cancelled a planned visit to Poland today, and there are threats of economic and military response.

And I can't say I blame Poland for being nervous.  They have been invaded outright by the USSR 2 times, and was totally controlled by them for half a century.  The same goes with the Czech Republic.

And lik many others, I have not forgotten Katyn Forest.

Personally, I think Russia is trying to bring back the "Good Old Days" of the Cold War.

Actually, the situation is very different.  And it is one repeating itself in many areas once controlled by the former Soviet Union.

Ever since Mr. Putin became President of Russia, they have been flexing their muscles, and putting increasing pressure on their former "Member Nations", basically telling them to return to Mother Russia or else.  Georgia, Ukraine, Poland, and many other nations are feeling increased pressure, much like what they had during the Cold War.

The current situation would be more like the UK invading India, and demanding it return to the Commonwealth.

And to show how nervous some nations are getting, Poland today signed an agreement with the US to base Missile Defense systems in Poland.  That means 10 Batteries of Patriot Missiles (2 Battalions) will soon be on their way to Poland.  And this not only involves Poland, but the Czech Republic.  Because the missiles will be linked into a radar system already in place with that former Soviet controlled nation.

And Russia is already threatening to respond to this agreement.  Their Foreign Minister cancelled a planned visit to Poland today, and there are threats of economic and military response.

And I can't say I blame Poland for being nervous.  They have been invaded outright by the USSR 2 times, and was totally controlled by them for half a century.  The same goes with the Czech Republic.

And lik many others, I have not forgotten Katyn Forest.

Personally, I think Russia is trying to bring back the "Good Old Days" of the Cold War.


Interesting how you haven't mentioned Georgia shelling Odessa.  Odessa does not want to be part of Georgia.  In fact many of them petitioned Russia for citizenship and their request was granted.  Russia's not the only one doing the "join or perish" routine.  I'm not about ready to polish a halo for Georgia.

There's plenty of blame to go around on this whole Georgian issue.

First off, NATO has been systematically signing up the old Warsaw Pact nations as members, which is substantially honking off Mother Russia.  Then the US has basically abrogated the ABM treaty with the new missile shield proposal.  Claiming that the reason the shield will be put in Poland is to protect against Iranian missiles.

Then we have the USA "sponsorship" of Kosovo splitting from Serbia.  This specific diplomatic blunder basically has given Russia ample precendent to support Abkhazia and Yugo-Osetinskaya (South Ossetia) seceding from Georgia.  And of course, this whole recent thing flared up because the Georgian government launched an armed assault on Yugo-Osetinskaya.

So, if you put yourself in Russia's shoes, what you see is NATO and the European Union encircling you with military alliances, a broken ABM treaty and construction of a missle defense force, and political manruvering to strip Kosovo from an old ally, Serbia.  Not to mention that your old associate Iraq was invaded unilaterally by the USA.

So... my opinion... there is more at work here than demonizing Vladimir Putin.  Georgia is Putin's way of telling NATO and the USA "quit screwing with me".  And if we are smart, we will.

I am not talking about "cowering to the Russians".  What I am talking about is putting an end to the unilateralism in foreign policy that appears to assume that we don't need to worry about what the Kremlin thinks.  That is a huge mistake.

A SMART foreign policy with regard to Russia will recognize the common tactical threat of global terrorism, and the strategic threat represented by Red China.  If Secretary Rice had even one clue about her job, she'd see this and act accordingly.  As it is, her trip to Georgia is a joke and makes the USA look smaller.

Interesting how you haven't mentioned Georgia shelling Odessa.  Odessa does not want to be part of Georgia.  In fact many of them petitioned Russia for citizenship and their request was granted.  Russia's not the only one doing the "join or perish" routine.  I'm not about ready to polish a halo for Georgia.

I assume you mean "Ossetia", not "Odessa" - they'd have had Ukraine invading if they'd tried that...

..but I agree with your not polishing any haloes for Georgia.

Hearing GWB go on about "bullying" on the news just now was a bit rich, too.

I assume you mean "Ossetia", not "Odessa" - they'd have had Ukraine invading if they'd tried that...



Heh heh... saw that too.  No wonder the Ukranians were going to deny Russia port access on the Black Sea.  :P

There's plenty of blame to go around on this whole Georgian issue.

First off, NATO has been systematically signing up the old Warsaw Pact nations as members, which is substantially honking off Mother Russia.  Then the US has basically abrogated the ABM treaty with the new missile shield proposal.  Claiming that the reason the shield will be put in Poland is to protect against Iranian missiles.

Then we have the USA "sponsorship" of Kosovo splitting from Serbia.  This specific diplomatic blunder basically has given Russia ample precendent to support Abkhazia and Yugo-Osetinskaya (South Ossetia) seceding from Georgia.  And of course, this whole recent thing flared up because the Georgian government launched an armed assault on Yugo-Osetinskaya.

So, if you put yourself in Russia's shoes, what you see is NATO and the European Union encircling you with military alliances, a broken ABM treaty and construction of a missle defense force, and political manruvering to strip Kosovo from an old ally, Serbia.  Not to mention that your old associate Iraq was invaded unilaterally by the USA.

So... my opinion... there is more at work here than demonizing Vladimir Putin.  Georgia is Putin's way of telling NATO and the USA "quit screwing with me".  And if we are smart, we will.

I am not talking about "cowering to the Russians".  What I am talking about is putting an end to the unilateralism in foreign policy that appears to assume that we don't need to worry about what the Kremlin thinks.  That is a huge mistake.

A SMART foreign policy with regard to Russia will recognize the common tactical threat of global terrorism, and the strategic threat represented by Red China.  If Secretary Rice had even one clue about her job, she'd see this and act accordingly.  As it is, her trip to Georgia is a joke and makes the USA look smaller.

Signing 'em up after we agreed not to.  Let the record show Uncle Sam has dirty hands in Cold War II!
::)

There's plenty of blame to go around on this whole Georgian issue.

First off, NATO has been systematically signing up the old Warsaw Pact nations as members, which is substantially honking off Mother Russia.  Then the US has basically abrogated the ABM treaty with the new missile shield proposal.  Claiming that the reason the shield will be put in Poland is to protect against Iranian missiles.


I still have a hard time seeing Patriot Missiles in Poland as a threat to anybody.  They are purely defensive weapons, and are not a threat to anybody unless they attack Poland.  And even then, they can do nothing more then shooting down aircraft (their intended role) and incomming missiles (which it can do, kinda).

And don't be foolish about who it is to protect Poland against.  The Soviet Union brutally invaded Poland 2 times in a decade.  And for the next 50 years rulled them with an iron fist.  The "Missile Shield" (a joke of a title if I ever heard one) is far more propaganda then actual defense.

As more details leak out, I am discovering that the deal is to place "10 interceptors" in Poland.  That is an almost worthless amount to protect a nation as large as Poland.  It would be like having 10 cops patrol Los Angeles.

To give an idea, my Battalion has 4 Batteries of Patriot launchers, for a total of 24 launchers.  During a war game earlier this year, we were hard pressed to secure a coridor approximately 20 miles wide.  And that was against aircraft and cruise missiles.  In reality the Patriot has not been tested on anything other then a short to medium range ballistic missile.  It is doubtfull it would be effective against a more modern medium range ballistic missile, or a more powerful ICBM.

The SCUD-B is largely a joke when it comes to ballistic missile technology.  Based off of the old R-17 missile, it was developed in 1964 and was long obsolete before they were ever used in combat.  These are purely political weapons, since they are very ineffective as tactical weapons.

To give an idea how thin this "missile shield" is, a flight of 41 aircraft would completely destory the shield, even assuming that every missile fired destroyed one aircraft.  And since doctrine is to fire 2 missiles at each target, only 21 would actually be needed (assuming a 100% hit ratio).

I Russia is really threatened by this, they are in a lot worse shape then anybody ever thought.

I still have a hard time seeing Patriot Missiles in Poland as a threat to anybody.  They are purely defensive weapons, and are not a threat to anybody unless they attack Poland.  And even then, they can do nothing more then shooting down aircraft (their intended role) and incomming missiles (which it can do, kinda).

And don't be foolish about who it is to protect Poland against.  The Soviet Union brutally invaded Poland 2 times in a decade.  And for the next 50 years rulled them with an iron fist.  The "Missile Shield" (a joke of a title if I ever heard one) is far more propaganda then actual defense.

As more details leak out, I am discovering that the deal is to place "10 interceptors" in Poland.  That is an almost worthless amount to protect a nation as large as Poland.  It would be like having 10 cops patrol Los Angeles.

To give an idea, my Battalion has 4 Batteries of Patriot launchers, for a total of 24 launchers.  During a war game earlier this year, we were hard pressed to secure a coridor approximately 20 miles wide.  And that was against aircraft and cruise missiles.  In reality the Patriot has not been tested on anything other then a short to medium range ballistic missile.  It is doubtfull it would be effective against a more modern medium range ballistic missile, or a more powerful ICBM.

The SCUD-B is largely a joke when it comes to ballistic missile technology.  Based off of the old R-17 missile, it was developed in 1964 and was long obsolete before they were ever used in combat.  These are purely political weapons, since they are very ineffective as tactical weapons.

To give an idea how thin this "missile shield" is, a flight of 41 aircraft would completely destory the shield, even assuming that every missile fired destroyed one aircraft.  And since doctrine is to fire 2 missiles at each target, only 21 would actually be needed (assuming a 100% hit ratio).

I Russia is really threatened by this, they are in a lot worse shape then anybody ever thought.


Note that Russia might just be a little testy seeing as how they lost 20,000,000 of their citizens the last time they got lax with security matters in neghboring countries.

Russia not not upset about the Patriots.  Patriots are generally useless against ICBM's, and most certainly have no effect on a MIRV that is reentering the atmosphere.  And if I have my weaponry correct, they are not of much use against terrain-hugging cruise missiles either.  Don't you have to shoot cruise missiles down with conventional high-rate-of-fire guns?

IN the chess game of nuclear weaponry, Anti-ballistic missile systems are seen as weapons of escalation, which cause the other side to deploy overwhelmingly large numbers of nuclear weapons to overcome the defense.  Is that what we want to start all over again?  To go back to the days when each side had 50,000 warheads?

Finally, "just 10 interceptors"? If there are just 10 interceptors and they are therefore so useless, then why are we so hot to trot to deploy them? 

China is the real strategic threat to the USA and Europe (and Russia), and as soon as we realize that, we will adjust our diplomacy with regard to Russia accordingly.

Russia not not upset about the Patriots.  Patriots are generally useless against ICBM's, and most certainly have no effect on a MIRV that is reentering the atmosphere.  And if I have my weaponry correct, they are not of much use against terrain-hugging cruise missiles either.  Don't you have to shoot cruise missiles down with conventional high-rate-of-fire guns?

Finally, "just 10 interceptors"? If there are just 10 interceptors and they are therefore so useless, then why are we so hot to trot to deploy them? 


Actually, as long as they can be detected and are at a high enough altitude, Patriot can easily shoot down a cruise missile.  In reality, a Cruise Missile is nothing but an unmanned jet.  And Patriot was designed as an anti-aircraft weapon.

For low flying Cruise Missiles, the Stinger is the weapon of choice.  At the exercise I was involved in earlier this year, we "shot down" 12 simulated cruise missiles, 10 of them with Stingers.  To simulate cruise missiles, they used the Bede BD-5B (most famously seen in the Bond movie Octopussy).  This actually closely matches the speed and size of most Cruise Missiles.

And Patriot is hardly useless.  It was (and is) the premiere anti-aircraft system in the US Inventory.  It is also effective against cruise missiles, helicopters, and short-medium range Ballistic Missiles.  It is simply not very effective as a "Missile Shield".

And 10 launchers will give you a total of 40 missiles.  Reload time is roughly 30 minutes for a well trained crew.  And because the missilesare controlled by a central command point, you simply have to take out the radar unit and the system is dead in the water.

For true "Missile Defense", we are gonna have to wait for THAAD to come online.  And I do not see that happening for at least another 2-4 years.

This whole business is nothing new.  In fact, the policies of regional domination Russia is pursuing go back to the days of the czars, and haven't changed much, except, as Lyricboy said, by the 20,000,000 losses, which amplify the need for those sheres of influence.  And we have our own, which is harder for the old world to challenge.

I assume you mean "Ossetia", not "Odessa" - they'd have had Ukraine invading if they'd tried that...

..but I agree with your not polishing any haloes for Georgia.

Hearing GWB go on about "bullying" on the news just now was a bit rich, too.


Yes, I meant Ossetia.  So you heard about Georgia bombing the crap out of them too.  With the help of U.S. military aide of course.

Heh heh... saw that too.  No wonder the Ukranians were going to deny Russia port access on the Black Sea.  :P


At least I'm not concerned about Atlanta. :D

http://d.yimg.com/us.yimg.com/p/uc/20080814/lbs080814.gif



Cat

I think we should slowly cut our ties to Georgia and encourage them to remove their presence from Iraq or Afghanistan (I can't remember which one they have troops in).  This is looking to become one big mess that America shouldn't get involved in.

It sucks, but apparently, the USSR is back in a more sleek capitalistic form with Putin running it.