Well, today's the big day.  I predict Obama wins in NC and Hillary takes Indy, but it's still a bit early to call.

Thoughts?
???

They say Obama has won in North Carolina, but Indiana is still too close to call right now. 

Obama power!

Well, today's the big day.  I predict Obama wins in NC and Hillary takes Indy, but it's still a bit early to call.


Not really.  Hillary sees a shadow of a hope to take the nomination, and the pundits (who stand to rake in piles of cash every week this drags out) predict six more weeks of lame-ass campaigning.

Look at it from Hillary's point of view:  She can't win enough delegates today to take the nomination.  Therefore, today cannot be the big day.  The big day was New Hampshire.  No, wait, Iowa.  No, wait, California.  No, wait, Texas.  No, wait, Guam!  No, wait, Indiana/NC!  No, wait, whoever's next.  No, wait, it's the convention.  No, wait, it's the lawsuits regarding Florida and Michigan.  No, wait, it's the second convention after the court orders the Party to seat more potential Clinton delegates.  No, wait, it's the General Election.  No, wait, it's the lawsuits over the General Election.  No, wait, the big day is Inauguration day -- when the Secret Service finally hauls a hysterical Hillary Clinton, still screaming "You don't understand!  It was my turn!" off the stage and back into the cushy lifetime Senate appointment (and backroom power-broker position) that she's rightfully earned for which she should have been more grateful, and permits President-Elect Obama or President-Elect McCain to take the oath.

My money's still on her finding a way to steal it at the nomination.  Which reminds me, I gotta renew my passport one of these days.

My money's still on her finding a way to steal it at the nomination. 
So's mine.
:-\\

man, i am just hating hating HATING hillary clinton today.

i dunno, all the headlines i'm seeing are saying obama pretty much has it snapped up. course i guess that's what the headlines have been saying for weeks.

Very close. Especially in Indy.

Indiana
Obama: 34
Clinton: 38

North Carolina
Obama: 63
Clinton: 52

IMO, Obama did well to take NC. Especially since Clinton campaigned so hard to win it. But I still can't see him getting to nomination. It has always been Clinton's for the taking and Obama hasn't really proved he can beat McCain whereas Clinton has. She has a stronger case to make to the super delegates than Obama. She will be the democratic nominee.

Well, today's the big day.  I predict Obama wins in NC and Hillary takes Indy, but it's still a bit early to call.

Thoughts?
???


Right on the dot!

But...will Obama take the win or will Hellary make a great comeback?
Not really.  Hillary sees a shadow of a hope to take the nomination, and the pundits (who stand to rake in piles of cash every week this drags out) predict six more weeks of lame-ass campaigning.

Look at it from Hillary's point of view:  She can't win enough delegates today to take the nomination.  Therefore, today cannot be the big day.  The big day was New Hampshire.  No, wait, Iowa.  No, wait, California.  No, wait, Texas.  No, wait, Guam!  No, wait, Indiana/NC!  No, wait, whoever's next.  No, wait, it's the convention.  No, wait, it's the lawsuits regarding Florida and Michigan.  No, wait, it's the second convention after the court orders the Party to seat more potential Clinton delegates.  No, wait, it's the General Election.  No, wait, it's the lawsuits over the General Election.  No, wait, the big day is Inauguration day -- when the Secret Service finally hauls a hysterical Hillary Clinton, still screaming "You don't understand!  It was my turn!" off the stage and back into the cushy lifetime Senate appointment (and backroom power-broker position) that she's rightfully earned for which she should have been more grateful, and permits President-Elect Obama or President-Elect McCain to take the oath.

My money's still on her finding a way to steal it at the nomination.  Which reminds me, I gotta renew my passport one of these days.


Is it me...or do we both have the same opinions when it comes to Politics? ???

the buzz seems to be clinton's done. more superdelegates are defecting, the party leaders don't want to meet with her, and headline after headline is saying she's basically over.

http://www.iht.com/articles/2008/05/07/america/07cndpundits.php

http://www.breitbart.com/article.php?id=D90GT64G4&show_article=1

IMO, Obama did well to take NC. Especially since Clinton campaigned so hard to win it. But I still can't see him getting to nomination. It has always been Clinton's for the taking and Obama hasn't really proved he can beat McCain whereas Clinton has. She has a stronger case to make to the super delegates than Obama. She will be the democratic nominee.



Um...Obama is ahead. As it stands right now, Hillary has 1686 delegates and Barack has 1842. Barack needs less that 200 more to tie up the nom. 217 regular delegates + 274 superdelegates are left leaving a total of 491. Mathamatically, there is no way she would win.  You can play with the figures if you like:  http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/02/29/delegate.counter/index.html



Cat

The sooner Hillary gets out, the better.

The sooner Hillary gets out, the better.



No kidding. She pretty much had her 8 years in office anyway ;)

Oh yeah...  Obama kicked some serious @$$ in my state.  Hillary is done -- she just doesn't know it yet.

Um...Obama is ahead. As it stands right now, Hillary has 1686 delegates and Barack has 1842. Barack needs less that 200 more to tie up the nom. 217 regular delegates + 274 superdelegates are left leaving a total of 491. Mathamatically, there is no way she would win.  You can play with the figures if you like:   http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/02/29/delegate.counter/index.html



Cat


I played with the numbers for the remaining states. How is it possible that neither candidate could reach the required 2,025 votes needed for the nomination?


Oh yeah...  Obama kicked some serious @$$ in my state.  Hillary is done -- she just doesn't know it yet.


Looking at the link Catwoman left, she'd have to win the remaining states by over a 3-1 margin to beat Obama. Not gonna happen.

Ant

The results didn't surprise me.  Obama's got more super delegates than Hillary.  This primaries since a few candidates dropped out have been one big toss up between Hillary and Obama.  It's always too close to tell anything.

I played with the numbers for the remaining states. How is it possible that neither candidate could reach the required 2,025 votes needed for the nomination?

Looking at the link Catwoman left, she'd have to win the remaining states by over a 3-1 margin to beat Obama. Not gonna happen.

Ant


It is possible that neither candidate will reach the needed number of delegates, but it would require extremely small margins of victory for both candidates from here on AND several superdelegates refusing to decide who to vote for until the convention.

BTW, Awesome avatar!  lol

It is possible that neither candidate will reach the needed number of delegates, but it would require extremely small margins of victory for both candidates from here on AND several superdelegates refusing to decide who to vote for until the convention.

BTW, Awesome avatar!  lol



Howard Dean is getting irritated with some of the Super Delegates for dragging their feet about who they support.  He doesn't want it to have to be at the convention.

It is possible that neither candidate will reach the needed number of delegates, but it would require extremely small margins of victory for both candidates from here on AND several superdelegates refusing to decide who to vote for until the convention.

BTW, Awesome avatar!  lol



So it's mathematically possible with all the votes in (state and superdelegate) that neither could get the nomination? I'm a bit confuzzled still...

Glad you like the avatar. If I knew how to resize .gif files I'd have this instead:

http://yogan.meinungsverstaerker.de/fun/burning_jeans.gif

Ant

So it's mathematically possible with all the votes in (state and superdelegate) that neither could get the nomination? I'm a bit confuzzled still...

Glad you like the avatar. If I knew how to resize .gif files I'd have this instead:

http://yogan.meinungsverstaerker.de/fun/burning_jeans.gif

Ant


HOly crap!! What was this guy thinking????

HOly crap!! What was this guy thinking????


That he is the luckiest guy on the planet to have his friends put out the fire on his crotch so quickly and thoroughly.  ;D

Ant

Oh yeah...  Obama kicked some serious @$$ in my state.  Hillary is done -- she just doesn't know it yet.

Denial isn't just a river in Egypt!

Um...Obama is ahead. As it stands right now, Hillary has 1686 delegates and Barack has 1842. Barack needs less that 200 more to tie up the nom. 217 regular delegates + 274 superdelegates are left leaving a total of 491. Mathamatically, there is no way she would win.  You can play with the figures if you like:   http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/02/29/delegate.counter/index.html



Cat

Delegates mean nothing now. Neither of them has a chance of securing the 2025. The nomination will be decided by super delegates. Which Hillary is leading in.

Denial isn't just a river in Egypt!


To Bush it is.

it's possible hillary might win the same way it's possible there might be a magnitude 8 earthquake directly under my feet in the next five minutes. technically not impossible but... it's just not going to happen.

she can continue to run, though. i no longer care. she isn't relevant anymore.

lol. hil forgot to say "blue collar."  :D

***

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/05/08/clinton-obama-not-winning_n_100763.html

"USA Today notices that Sen. Hillary Clinton has begun referring explicitly to her appeal among white voters while on the campaign trail:

Hillary Rodham Clinton vowed Wednesday to continue her quest for the Democratic nomination, arguing she would be the stronger nominee because she appeals to a wider coalition of voters -- including whites who have not supported Barack Obama in recent contests.

"I have a much broader base to build a winning coalition on," she said in an interview with USA TODAY. As evidence, Clinton cited an Associated Press article "that found how Sen. Obama's support among working, hard-working Americans, white Americans, is weakening again, and how whites in both states who had not completed college were supporting me."

it's possible hillary might win the same way it's possible there might be a magnitude 8 earthquake directly under my feet in the next five minutes. technically not impossible but... it's just not going to happen.

she can continue to run, though. i no longer care. she isn't relevant anymore.

You can't say it's not going to happen. I don't think it's a given that all the super delegates will turn to Obama and there wont be a brokered convention. Obama should take his own advice and not declare "mission accomplished" too early. As long as Hillary's still in the race, she stands in the way of Obama and 2025 delegates. He needs 176 more, and that could easily happen (as there are more that 176 left), granted Hillary doesn't win many delegates in the remaining states. But if she keeps campaigning, keeps her spirits high, keeps convincing her supporters that it's not over, it's unlikely Obama can win 176 more delegates while Hillary is still around winning delegates for herself. In which case the super delegates will decide the nominee and it's not a given they will all flock to Obama as Obama and his supporters expect. There is a lot of evidence that Hillary has a better chance of beating Obama than McCain. Especially if she debates him on the war in Iraq, which if you watch her O'Reilly factor interview, she is in the zone on. Especially if she debates him on the economy, which while he said he still needs to learn about, many economics experts say Hillary is the best candidate for. The Democrats want to win the election, and to that they've got to beat McCain. The simple fact is, Hillary has a better chance of beating McCain than Obama and that's what the nomination will come down to.

i disagree. i think obama's selling point is that he's bringing a new attitude to politics and to campaigning, where he's refusing to indulge in this bottomless negativity and constant attack politics that undermines both sides. they had a couple of special elections where republicans holding long-term republican seats tried to run attack ads linking their opponents to obama, thinking he was damaged goods because he'd been attacked so handily, but they both had surprise losses. and hillary is banking on people continuing to be into the old-school attack politics, i honestly think if she wins the primary she'll be more vulnerable to mccain than obama will be -- because mccain doesn't really do the attack thing so vociferously either.

i really think the public is interested in bringing politics back to the issues. rev. wright and rev. hagee and who wears a flag pin aren't real issues -- they're the same old tricks we've seen a thousand times and i think people are tired of it, it's just that the media haven't caught up and figured this out yet. the attack stuff is a bit of an indulgence we could wallow in during prosperous times, but now things are tough and we need to get serious. it's fun to make our campaigns like professional wrestling matches but i think we'll have to actually make politics about fixing the country for a while. talking about flag pins and whether a black candidate can appeal to white voters and pandering to the public with "gas holidays" that will harm the economy, and claiming not to have time to listen to "elite economists", and fatuously claiming the country ISN'T bitter and falsely claiming that times are prosperous when they plainly arent (something both hillary and mccain have done), all that sort of stuff is gonna be really poisonous for the country right now. it's like pretending nothing's wrong.

and anyway, i'm not saying the race is over. just about every newspaper, commentator, news network and democratic higher-up is saying it's over. just check the headlines. clinton's the only one still saying there's a possibility.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/politico/20080508/pl_politico/10184

*sigh*

ha! he should do it. he's got basically all the commentators on his side.

in the meantime he should ignore her and go after mccain. let her talk all she wants about how he cant reach out to "white voters," it just makes her look bad.

http://thephoenix.com/OutsideTheFrame/content/binary/hillary_clinton.jpg

That definitely makes her look bad.

"THEY THINK I'M OUT OF THE RACE?!?!?!?!?!?!??!?"

http://i29.tinypic.com/25u4k77.jpg

^ That looks like she's taking a massive dump :D

http://punditkitchen.files.wordpress.com/2008/05/political-pictures-barack-obama-bust-move.jpg

there's an interesting theory that sez she has to stay in through the west virginia primaries just so barack doesn't lose while running unopposed, because she supposedly has a big lead there and that would be embarrassing for him and for the party. i guess that's plausible. she now is saying she's gonna run through early june and then campaign for obama if she loses.

yeah daz what i'm talkin' obamabout!

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20080508/ts_nm/usa_politics_democrats_dc_4;_ylt=Ap4TXfCv6fYX1ekUr0WPSXwE1vAI

Gas tax battle was a political gift to Obama By John Whitesides, Political Correspondent
35 minutes ago



WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The heated presidential campaign battle over a federal gas tax holiday turned out to be a much needed gift for Barack Obama -- and he can thank Democratic rival Hillary Clinton.

ADVERTISEMENT

The fight, which dominated the final days before the North Carolina and Indiana contests, gave him an opening to talk about the economy with working-class voters and helped Obama at least temporarily bury the controversy about his former pastor, the Rev. Jeremiah Wright.

Democratic strategists said Obama's focus on the economy as he rejected a summer-long suspension of the gas tax as a "political gimmick" will make him a better candidate heading into a likely battle against Republican John McCain in November.

"The game changer in the last week was when Clinton went after him on the gas tax," said Simon Rosenberg, head of the Democratic advocacy group NDN. "Obama pivoted very well to the economy and figured out how to talk about the struggles of everyday people."



booyah! :P

So it's mathematically possible with all the votes in (state and superdelegate) that neither could get the nomination? I'm a bit confuzzled still...

Glad you like the avatar. If I knew how to resize .gif files I'd have this instead:

http://yogan.meinungsverstaerker.de/fun/burning_jeans.gif

Ant


No, I mean...  it's only possible if not everyone declares.  Like, the pledged delegates basically have to declare once the primary for their state ends.  The superdelegates can wait to declare at the end of the convention.

Another great pic...  lol

So it's mathematically possible with all the votes in (state and superdelegate) that neither could get the nomination? I'm a bit confuzzled still...

Glad you like the avatar. If I knew how to resize .gif files I'd have this instead:

http://yogan.meinungsverstaerker.de/fun/burning_jeans.gif

Ant
ha! someday he'll thank his friends for stomping out that fire. but i think it'll be a few years. ;D

ha! someday he'll thank his friends for stomping out that fire. but i think it'll be a few years. ;D


That reminds me of someone as well....