watch when it turns out the downturn in violence was actually because of the sadr ceasefire, not because of the bush administration's troop escalation.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20080326/ts_nm/iraq_dc_39

this war just keeps getting worse and worse. :(

***

Battle rages in Basra as government cracks down By Aref Mohammed
2 hours, 1 minute ago

BASRA, Iraq (Reuters) - Iraqi forces fought Shi'ite militants on Wednesday in battles that threatened to wreck a truce by a powerful cleric that U.S. forces had credited for much of the reduction in violence of the past year.

ADVERTISEMENT

More than 60 people have been killed and hundreds wounded in the fighting, centered on the oil hub of Basra in the south and on Shi'ite neighborhoods of Baghdad where armed followers of cleric Moqtada al-Sadr hold sway.

Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki, in Basra overseeing the campaign, said fighters would be spared if they surrendered within 72 hours. Sadr's followers rejected the ultimatum.

The assault was the largest military campaign carried out yet by Maliki's forces without U.S. or British combat units, posing a crucial test for the Iraqi government's ability to impose its will and allow American forces to withdraw.

looks like it's getting worse.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20080326/ts_nm/iraq_hilla_dc_2;_ylt=AjUidbeaECQTA.eQxSRVIXwE1vAI

Many killed by U.S. strike in Iraq's Hilla: sources 53 minutes ago



HILLA, Iraq (Reuters) - Many people were killed or wounded by a U.S. air strike called to support Iraqi forces in the town of Hilla south of Baghdad on Wednesday, Iraqi security sources said.

ADVERTISEMENT
 
U.S. forces confirmed the air strike and said they were not certain how many people had been killed but denied that there were large numbers of casualties.

One police source said at least 11 people were killed and 18 wounded in the strike, launched after Iraqi security forces called for support following street battles with Shi'ite militia members in the city's Thawra neighborhood.

Another police source said 29 people were killed and 39 were wounded. He said six houses were destroyed in the strikes which lasted for an hour late on Wednesday evening.

watch when it turns out the downturn in violence was actually because of the sadr ceasefire, not because of the bush administration's troop escalation.


Ah, the ceasefire: The English translation of the Arabic word for "We're losing, so let's pretend to make peace for a few months, regroup, rebuild our forces, and then stab 'em in the back!"  It's Kabuki theater; the diplomat must always accept a ceasefire, the ceasefire must always be broken on schedule, and the diplomat must always pretend to be shocked.

From a strategic viewpoint, this is going to be an interesting week.  Mookie's strategy involves balancing his forces' strength against that of the "Iraqi" "government".  If the "Iraqi" "government" is doing poorly relative to his own forces, he's got more time to regroup and can wait it out until after the US election.  On the other hand, if the "Iraqi" "government" is growing in strength/stability faster than his own forces can regroup (or recruit) under the auspices of the ceasefire, however, he's going to be predisposed to attack sooner.  The worst-case scenario for Mook is that the ceasefire lasts so long that everyone grudgingly accepts the imposed peace, thereby freezing him out of power altogether.

His decision to attack now (rather than waiting until after the elections and a friendlier Administration is in power) indicates that things have probably been going poorly for him, at least relative to the strength of the "Iraqi" forces.  It also indicates that he believes his forces are as likely to win as they're ever going to be in the next few months, so it's time for him to roll the dice. 

If Mook takes firm control of the south and can restore chaos to the rest of the country, the Surge will have been defeated.  If Mook loses (or even if he settles for a draw and joins the "Iraqi" "government"'s political process as the ruler of his piece of the pie), the Surge really will have paid off.  Put down your elephant/donkey flags, grab your popcorn and place your bets, because it's game time.  It's going to be an interesting week for both sides. 

lol. "restore chaos." that shouldn't be too hard. ::)

i'm going to bed. more tomorrow.

lol. "restore chaos." that shouldn't be too hard. ::)

i'm going to bed. more tomorrow.


Heh.  Same reason I put scare quotes around "Iraqi" and "government".  I don't think anyone there thinkes of themselves as "Iraqi", and the only government that exists is the result of a few ethnic groups working out whether there'll be one, two, or three ethnically-cleansed regions within the lines on the map currently marked "Iraq".  If, in 5-10 years, that number is still "three", the surge will have worked.  If it's "two" or "one", it didn't, and the correct strategy for the US would have been to withdraw temporarily and cut a deal with the neighboring state that sponsored the winning factions of the genocide.

Things are getting better (but sometimes I question...) so I think the War should be over. Because this war (Like all the other wars after WWII) was our Government saying 'we are going to force Democracy no matter what you say'!

Johhny Depp was right about America.