hmmm... Bush blamed the last one on his predecessor... I wonder if he's still going to try that route after claiming the small upward bump during the last few years was because of his wonderful tax cuts.

Here's a clue to the Republicans.  The upper class does not drive the economy. The middle class does.  If you keep giving your rich friends huge tax breaks, it will do NOTHING to stimulate the economy.  The housing market crashing isn't a bunch of rich people dumping property, it's a bunch of middle income folks who are over-extended and can no longer afford their mortgages.

Here's a good Rovian strategy: Let some Democrat pigeon take the White House in '08, and blame her for the economic woes the Bushies created since 2001!
Then it's Gingrich--DeLay '12

http://www.pbs.org/newshour/images/election/july-dec00/hillary4.jpg
You ready, Hill?
(And, Senator, love your suit!)

  The heart of a recession is consumer psychology; if you say recession enough, it happens... 

  Much of the nation's economic performance is psychological.  It was said under the Clinton administration that one night Greenspan was seen at dinner with his wife and he was smiling, and the next day a slide on the stock market stopped, with all the implied connection that seems ridiculous...

  I'd also like to mention on these occasions that, quite literally, prices went up at my local grocery stores the very day Bush was inaugurated. The psychological effect of this presidency on the economy has been nearly atrocious groove ;) on...

  http://img.villagephotos.com/p/2006-6/1193336/rodeo_clowns.gif

 

   The heart of a recession is consumer psychology; if you say recession enough, it happens... 

   Much of the nation's economic performance is psychological.  It was said under the Clinton administration that one night Greenspan was seen at dinner with his wife and he was smiling, and the next day a slide on the stock market stopped, with all the implied connection that seems ridiculous...

   I'd also like to mention on these occasions that, quite literally, prices went up at my local grocery stores the very day Bush was inaugurated. The psychological effect of this presidency on the economy has been nearly atrocious groove ;) on...

   http://img.villagephotos.com/p/2006-6/1193336/rodeo_clowns.gif

   

And yet...they tell us economics is a sound science, cold and rational; it's a man's way of looking at the world!
::)

Remember, if there is a recession, don't try to blame the Bush Administration.  It is NOT their fault!

I don't know who is gonna run 2012 but rumors are that ole Jeb is gonna give it a go..Can we afford another Bush in the white house?

I don't know who is gonna run 2012 but rumors are that ole Jeb is gonna give it a go..Can we afford another Bush in the white house?

We can't let that happen.  We must drive the Bush crime family out of power and out of politics.  Every last one of them is an enemy of the American people.

We can't let that happen.  We must drive the Bush crime family out of power and out of politics.  Every last one of them is an enemy of the American people.


  The only real defending of George W. Bush coming from my corner is that at some point we must take mercy on the stupid.  To a certain degree, he cannot help what he is.  To a certain degree, he is a product of circumstances.  In consideration of human diversity, people of his nature must occasionally arise, and if they fall from a family tree of political influence, it is no more their fault than the mere fact of their birth.  Other people did the f@cking, and GWB is what came groove ;) on all...

   The only real defending of George W. Bush coming from my corner is that at some point we must take mercy on the stupid.  To a certain degree, he cannot help what he is.  To a certain degree, he is a product of circumstances.  In consideration of human diversity, people of his nature must occasionally arise, and if they fall from a family tree of political influence, it is no more their fault than the mere fact of their birth.  Other people did the f@cking, and GWB is what came groove ;) on all...

Stupid like a fox.  He's not stupid.  He is psychopathic.  He revels in the death and suffering of other human beings.  He is like so many mad kings of yore, a scion of inbred royalty, a spoiled boy who always gets what he wants, and the possessor of a vulgar mind incapable--incapable--of ken, compassion, or wisdom.  Dubya presents as stupid because the brightness we expect from an intelligent person seems absent.  It is as if several circuits in his brain are switched off.  However, the ones still switched on work overtime.  He is a craft, cruel, and dangerous man.  To describe him as "stupid" credits him with a bumbling oafishness.  He has been portrayed as such since he entered politics.  I think he is aware of the image, and plays into it.  He has the might of money behind him.  Money has trumped all.  He will never have to match wits with anybody, so what does he care?

I've got to agree its a mistake to think "oh well Bush is an okay at heart, he just f*cks up". He may not be be very intelligent, but thats never stopped anyone from being a piece of sh*t.  He knows what hes up to. Its not like he has Down syndrome. :D

[quote author=Keyser S

Hey, they weren't right before the great depression of 1929! I predict as well there will be a great recession (let's not mince words: depression) coming in 2007 that will rival the extended 1990-1994 recession or be worse, and may even last through the early '10s. Economists always put a sunny face on things to keep their jobs, since they're told to be optimistic. Economists I've talked to in confidence agree about a coming recession/depression. I believe this will be the case of the "lone wolf" predicting the collapse of the US economy, everyone denies it, and then they're busy cursing themselves later. The majority opinion of economists on these sort of things is NEVER right.

It maybe next year, it may be in ten years, but we are in for economic devastation unparalelled since the 1930s.  We can't prevent it.  It's going to happen.  Ronald Reagan encouraged us to conflate economic fantasy with economic reality and we've been doing it ever since.  We've maxed out our credit cards!
:o

Latest report shows that there is still a good chance we are headed for a recession, since there has been a decline in manufacturing in addition to the housing slump and the auto industry. The recession could start as early as Q1 of 2007 or even Q4 of 2006, depending if there is a decline in the GDP this quarter. I'm surprised that we're not already in a recession, but I think the sharp drop in gas prices in Sept. helped delay it. People argue that the economy is getting better because the Dow is high, but that just means that rich people have just gotten richer while the poor and middle class have harder time affording things.

It maybe next year, it may be in ten years, but we are in for economic devastation unparalelled since the 1930s.  We can't prevent it.  It's going to happen.  Ronald Reagan encouraged us to conflate economic fantasy with economic reality and we've been doing it ever since.  We've maxed out our credit cards!
:o


This is Global Max. In what can only be called an unprecedented occurrence, I'm about to agree 100% with you.  ;D

I'm laughing at the situation in the UK at the moment. House prices have become so inflated to the point where you can't get on to the property market in any developed part of the country for less than about $200K (the equivalent of) so basically, even in the crappiest part of the country you still can't get much.. for the price of a small house in a decent Chicago neighborhood.  ;D

People have maxed out their credit cards, refinanced with the equity in their homes and are taking 50 year, 150% mortgages. Then.. as if to top it all off, interest rates have gone up and up and up and it looks like the whole economy is gradually slowing to a halt. Hello Negative Equity. Hello suicide solutions.

It's thatcher all over again.. except it happened under a... LABOUR Government. That's right folks, a Labour government, ya know, champion of the working man.  ::)

Anyway, the causes for this are so numerous that we could sit around until next Friday just reeling them off, but the key ones are these.

1) A lack of space for homes, but an ever increasing demand.
2) The reduction of the manufacturing industry to nothing.
3) The credit card lifestyle.
4) Keeping up with the Jones's
5) The availability of loans to people who shouldn't get them.

Folks, credit isn't for people with good credit ratings.. it's for people with bad credit ratings. The bank is more likely to give Bob a loan if he has a credit rating low enough for them to be sure he can make the minimum payment, but have the interest keep building. That way, Bob will keep paying them that much more for that much longer.

The whole situation stinks.

More people will have to declare bankruptcy and of course, when you declare bankruptcy, you can't pay your debts. Those you owe lose money, they declare insolvency, they lose out, jobs are lost, homes are sold at cut down prices, the children starve, the dog runs away, your wife leaves you and you jump off the expressway bridge at 3 in the morning on a rainy cold Thursday.

Actually, the entire planet is heading towards a recession.  This is not a "US Only" situation.

The UK is seeing a record number of bankruptcies, as well as Canada and France.  And all of the major "Benchmark Currencies" are in decline.  However, the opinion of how the general economy is going is mixed, mostly because of what the gold market is doing.

One of the traditional benchmarks for a poor economy is an increase in the price of gold.  Historically, investors pour their money out of esinking economies and place it into gold.  This in turn tends to push up the value.  However, in this case the price of gold is falling along with the value of the various currencies.

Economists that look at multiple values (consumer spending, precious metal values, housing, inflation) are mostly split between us entering either a slow recession, or a mid-level adjustment.  This is because some of the major signs of a recession (large unemployment, gold price increase, high interest rates, decreased spending) are simply not there.

I was listening to one economist this morning, and he pointed out that one of the biggest things changing is how people spend their money.  Once the average car was only 1/10-1/20 the cost of a new home.  Currently, the trend to bigger and more luxurious cars has greatly skewed this ratio.  A lot of people are buying cars with a ratio of 1/2-1/8 the value of their house.  The end result is that instead of investing the money in something that appreciates value (land), they are putting the money into something that depreciates in value.

Myself, I am also up in the air.  This is happening all over the world, not just in the US.  And it is hard to state we are entering a recession, when very few of the traditional indicators are present.  Now if Inflation starts to rise along with the value of gold and a sinking employment rate, then I will start to worry.  Until then, it does look a lot like an adjustment to me.

Folks, credit isn't for people with good credit ratings.. it's for people with bad credit ratings. The bank is more likely to give Bob a loan if he has a credit rating low enough for them to be sure he can make the minimum payment, but have the interest keep building. That way, Bob will keep paying them that much more for that much longer.

The whole situation stinks.

More people will have to declare bankruptcy and of course, when you declare bankruptcy, you can't pay your debts. Those you owe lose money, they declare insolvency, they lose out, jobs are lost, homes are sold at cut down prices, the children starve, the dog runs away, your wife leaves you and you jump off the expressway bridge at 3 in the morning on a rainy cold Thursday.


That is unfortunately a result of misinformed or uninformed consumers and shady lenders.  The problem is that all the words on the contract are there but people are so excited to own a home or get their "fake" money that they can't bother to read them, so they essentially screw themselves over by signing the contract they didn't read--not that the agent helped them read it or anything :P

This is the stuff they forgot to teach us in school.

I have no idea what you guys are talking about. The economy is doing great. So what if we owe trillions to China, so what if the housing boom went bust-but those Bush tax cuts really boosted the economy that will continue until 2009-and then the blame can be put on the next prez.  ::) ::) ::)




Cat

More people will have to declare bankruptcy and of course, when you declare bankruptcy, you can't pay your debts. Those you owe lose money, they declare insolvency, they lose out, jobs are lost, homes are sold at cut down prices, the children starve, the dog runs away, your wife leaves you and you jump off the expressway bridge at 3 in the morning on a rainy cold Thursday.


Short-selling homebuilding stocks and riding them down from the $60s to the $20s before taking profits. Houses sitting empty, real estate agents starving for commissions, sellers getting desperate, and finally someone dumps that mansion on the 10-acre lot for $50,000. Starving children and runaway dogs (or is it starving dogs and runaway children?) finding a new harmonious balance in the circle of life.  Dozens of lonely divorcees hanging out in every bar in the country until closing time, and then it's all over in a flash.  She calls a cab, you spend the night scraping meat out of your wheel wells, and your car insurance goes through the roof on Friday morning.  Curse you, winds of economic fate!

Short-selling homebuilding stocks and riding them down from the $60s to the $20s before taking profits. Houses sitting empty, real estate agents starving for commissions, sellers getting desperate, and finally someone dumps that mansion on the 10-acre lot for $50,000. Starving children and runaway dogs (or is it starving dogs and runaway children?) finding a new harmonious balance in the circle of life.  Dozens of lonely divorcees hanging out in every bar in the country until closing time, and then it's all over in a flash.  She calls a cab, you spend the night scraping meat out of your wheel wells, and your car insurance goes through the roof on Friday morning.  Curse you, winds of economic fate!


A man after my own heart.

You forgot the kebab shop owner who closes down and builds a fertilizer bomb after he has enough time to go down to the mosque every night.

You forgot the kebab shop owner who closes down and builds a fertilizer bomb after he has enough time to go down to the mosque every night.


No, I didn't. 

That's why it was a house on a 10-acre lot (by definition, in the middle of nowhere, because nobody can get 10 acres of land in the cities) instead of a penthouse apartment in a target city, nor a McMansion on a 1-acre lot 10 miles downwind from a target city.

Second - he's not motivated by class envy, he's motivated by religious fervor.  He'll build that bomb whether I'm making money or not.  He's not a Marxist, he's a religious fundamentalist. There's a difference.

Third - if we get to the point where the proles pooer than me rise up and eat the rich (and I've somehow escaped proledom in the interim :), I hope I'm tastier than the poor, who are known to be tough and stringy, and I hope that whoever eats me finds me nice and fat and tasty.  Some things ya can't hedge from, and that's one of 'em.  Ya pays your money, ya takes your chances.  Anastasia didn't scream in vain, she had a pretty good run of it.  Even if it was cut short.

See?  This is what happens when you let Democrats take charge of congress.  They're touchy-feely girlymen who have feminine minds and are incapable of undrstanding the man's world of economics!  Now, pass me another PBR!
http://www.inthe00s.com/smile/12/drunken_smilie.gif