Found this article from 2006. I think it rings true even now, more and more:
http://truthbypete.blogspot.com/2006/10/crumbling-regime-of-goatee.html

Goatee = the Next Mullet?

(pronounced, "moo-LAY", French connotation, meaning "totally sweet hairdo worn today only by crazed, fashion-senseless rednecks")

In July 2006, I celebrated the 1-year anniversary of the birth of my Goatee-Mullet Theory. Some in my inner circle have heard me go on about goatees ... goatees this, and goatees that. Basically, it's a theory of how lame and also-ran the goatee has become today. It must have been ten years ago that I recall actually seeing my first goatee in person. Before that, it was just mustaches and beards. I believe it was with the advent of the nose-hair trimmer and other, small facial hair trimmers that the goatee found its roots. However, no matter how it found its roots, the goatee has been in full effect and riding a wave of popularity ever since. Seems like it's been a requirement for NBA players to wear one, if possible. There are some obvious exceptions to the rule, like Yao Ming (can't grow facial hair), Steve Nash (white) and Pat Burke (completely hairless individual). Even 1/3 of the Women's NBA currently sports a goatee.

"Goatees will never be like mullets. This guy is crazy!" Oh yeah? Well back in 1980, mullets were never going to be mullets either. Granted, the world was a different place when mullets were king. Guns 'N Roses and Def Leppard denim jackets were cool, Slim Jim was popular, and every kid in the neighborhood owned a BMX bike. Some may say that these things are still popular in some pockets of the country... well that's because these pockets haven't changed since 1980. In fact, in these pockets of the country you will still find mullets, out and about like they never lost their style. Sometimes even now, someone from one of these pockets will accidentally wander out into the rest of the country to be seen by the rest of us. In fact, I was at dinner just last weekend and sitting less than 5 feet away was a flaming mullet. You know, the whole "business up-front, party in the back" haircut/lifestyle. And that's cool, if that's your thing.

(I might add here that no haircut in history has EVER even come close to reflecting the lifestyle of its owner quite like the mullet... nope, not the buzz-cut, bowl-cut, bob 'n weave, or even jerrycurls. You just can't say "man, that guy lives life exactly like his haircut!" unless it's a mullet.)

So why is the goatee going to become the next mullet? Well, if we had to choose 1 thing from society today that had the potential to become the next mullet, what would be at the top of that list? What makes a mullet, a mullet?


Goatees v. Ascots, round 1

Why has mullet spotting ("hunting") become so popular these days? Even 5 years ago, there were myriad of websites whose whole premise was to publish and mock a single hairstyle. But why, I ask? Is it due to the rarity of actual mullets in our modern society? Is it really like seeing a live tiger on the subway (the cliche "wild animal goes to the city" storyline)? Is it the mystique of seeing something that was thought to be extinct over 10 years ago (the same as the day when I was at dinner at a chic little Italian restaurant on the south end of Manhattan and two guys came in together wearing ascots... it was like opening up the drapes on a sunny Saturday morning and seeing a Pterodactyl sitting in the front tree. I was SURE that the ascot was extinct...)

My firm belief is that the mullet has become so rare, that seeing one in person just shocks most of us. Not in a necessarily positive way, although it does make the day a little brighter when you tell your friends about it later. If we think about it, I think we will all agree that the mullet carries a very powerful mystique in our society today. Not sure why...


Goatees v. Ascots, round 2

Next, we need to discuss the Fashion Life Cycle. The mullet came onto the scene pretty quickly. It left pretty quickly, too. That's the trick with fashion... you need to get on the right trains. Some trains will be running for quite a long time, but stay away from those fashion feux paux trains. You may someday be embarrassed to have ridden on the wrong trains. The mullet train was one that, as it was leaving New York City, people thought it was going on a long journey to L.A., and that's why they got on. They had no idea it was going to stop in Hackensack, NJ, to never get back on the tracks again...

No one wants to show their children pictures of when they had a mullet. "Daddy, I thought you were better than that." - my heart would crumble if my little girl ever said that to me (if I had a little girl). And I'm predicting it will be the same scenario for the goatee. In fact, we have seen in the past few months some signs that the goatee is becoming less socially acceptable. From an article in GQ about how the goatee is no longer the fashion-conscious facial hair of choice, to ET doing a short report on the declining popularity of the goatee.

Maybe even more telling is the fact that more rednecks are beginning to sport the goatee. Normally, once the rednecks begin to try out a style, it's past the first phase of the fashion life cycle, known as "A-List Popularity". The second phase is when the fashion goes to the masses, or "Mass Popularity". This is when the A-list celeb's will begin to jump off the train. The third phase is "Redneck Popularity". It is at this stage when a fashion will become mainstream for rednecks; some of the masses will begin to change their style because they don't want to appear to be a redneck.

In terms of the Mullet Life Cycle, the Goatee, for the past year 7-8 years has been in the Mass Popularity phase. However, we are nearing full entrance into the Redneck Popularity phase. I have seen more goatees per redneck capita in the past 2 months than ever. It's like they finally got the memo that was sent 10 years ago. And as we saw with the mullet, once the goatee enters phase 3, it will then begin to slowly downgrade in popularity with the masses. If the masses sour on the goatee like they did with the mullet, then we could be looking at a Goatee Armageddon.


Just remember who said it first: the goatee will be the next mullet. I did.

i think you're right, goatees seem like a late 90s to mid 00s thing. doesn't really jam with the early 10's vibe.