For the past year, home values in the US have been tumbling due to the subprime and credit crisis.  A few areas have been hit really hard with devaluing of home prices.  For example, Nevada, California, Florida, and Ohio.  The rest of us have been affected as well.  Most people know the full story but I will be happy to discuss in detail if you like.

How are home values in your area holding up.  Essentially, the days of easy money and using your home as an ATM are gone.  Foreclosured homes, bankruptcies and deliquencies are rising fast.  This is pushing home values down.

I think this will continue through next year.  In New Jersey, home values have dropped about 15 - 20% depending on the area.  What are your thoughts?  Everyone who owns a home in America will be affected if they aren't so already.

Blame it on the Bush Regime

Indymac already had a bank run and went out of business.
Countrywide the nation's largest mortgage company went under and was gobbled up by Bank of America.
Bear Stearns, the Investment Bank, went under and was gobbled up by JPM Chase.

As we speak the stocks for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are getting slammed.  The are mortgage security purchasers.  The fear is that they will go under and need goverment bailout.  And when I say goverment bailout, I mean your and my tax money helping out people.

I live in san Jose,so i've seen many homes become dramatically overpriced in the first place.It seemed like the average home would be one million dollars.So in a way i'm not surprised to see prices fall.

I live in san Jose,so i've seen many homes become dramatically overpriced in the first place.It seemed like the average home would be one million dollars.So in a way i'm not surprised to see prices fall.


I think this is the same in most places.  The run up in prices could not go on forever.  A correction was past due.  The big question is when will prices stop dropping?  Then, will it be a good time to enter real estate again?  Hmmm.

Things are getting scary out there.  Fannie and Freddie are bankrupt and seized by the Government.

Lehman Brothers is imploding.  Wamu, Merrill Lynch, and AIG are falling like bricks. 

I drove around my neighborhood last week and saw ALOT of houses for sale.  Very unusual for this time of year.   Prices will continue to drop.

The WILDCARD is the Fed.  If they can push mortgage rates really low then the combination of low prices and low rates should spark buying.

The WILDCARD is the Fed.  If they can push mortgage rates really low then the combination of low prices and low rates should spark buying.




Don't think so.  The job market is precarious and wages are stagnant.  We are in trouble, pure and simple.  The regime isn't done screwing us yet.

Don't think so.  The job market is precarious and wages are stagnant.  We are in trouble, pure and simple.  The regime isn't done screwing us yet.


Unemploymeent at 6.1% is not good, but not horrific like when it was 6.7%.  We are getting closer to it though - especailly after Lehman lays off 5000 people. 

Houses must sell.  The credit crisis is nasty.  My guess is that Lehman will not be bought by BofA since Fed not backing.  Lehman will go bankrupt if this is the case.  It is nasty.  AIG is diving because of CDS concerns.

Oil has come back down to the $100 range.    Housing is the largest asset BY FAR in the USA.  Houses need to sell in order to spark the economy again.  Prices are falling but not fast enough.  Lower rates will kick the mortgage business in the behind.

Agreed, that there are other factors at play and it WILL GET WORSE.

Well, it seems that Lehman is being broken up into 3 pieces.  Hopefully the Fed will cut rates this week so mortgage rates can lower some more.

Well, it seems that Lehman is being broken up into 3 pieces.  Hopefully the Fed will cut rates this week so mortgage rates can lower some more.


Nope, not even that lucky.  LEH filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy.  They're toast.

Meanwhile, BAC buys MER for $29/sh, which is a ridiculous premium given that (as the independent brokers fall, one by one) they could have gotten it for $17.50 in the open market as of Friday's close, and probably for half of that by next weekend. 

I think the motivation was to put the half-dead broker (MER) on life support (BAC's capital) while letting the one that was beyond recovery (LEH) fail.  Either that, or it's to make sure that any hedge funds who were long this weekend stay afloat and don't take down their brokers.  What a hedge fund loses on LEH, it makes up for on MER.  (Conversely, hedge fund short the financials makes a mint on LEH, but forks it over in losses on their MER position.)

Either way, the futures look pretty fugly.  USD implodes on anticipation of further rate cuts, Dow off 300+, etc. etc. etc.

http://media.serious-internet.biz/serious_internet/images/lulz/2008/04/19/b203d3e6e5676ab75d30e0c6e8b537ce_640x480.jpg

Next up, AIG and WM.

(No positions in securities mentioned.)

Yeah.  Looks like the new bank model is the Citigroup/JPM model with combined bank and investment bank.  That leaves Goldman and Morgan Stanley to sniff around the falling banks Wamu and Wachovia.

This is getting pretty ugly.  Next victim - AIG.  Govt HAS TO bail them out though. 
I think home values will continue to plunge.

Ah, good old bank failures!  Always a sign of a healthy economy!
::)

Yeah.  Looks like the new bank model is the Citigroup/JPM model with combined bank and investment bank.  That leaves Goldman and Morgan Stanley to sniff around the falling banks Wamu and Wachovia.

This is getting pretty ugly.  Next victim - AIG.  Govt HAS TO bail them out though. 


Yep.  With Fitch and S&P downgrading AIG's debt after hours on Monday, AIG's now on the clock.  Stick a fork in 'em, they're done unless they can come up with $70B in the next 2-3 days.  Maybe Buffett comes in and saves the day, but I can't imagine he'd do it until after the fit's hit the shan and he can get the whole thing for pennies on the dollar.  (OK, since we're already at "pennies on the dollar", how about tenths of pennies on the dollar :)

Fed meeting and rate announcement is tomorrow (Tuesday), which only adds another unknown into the mix.  Do they hold rates steady and save their last round of ammo for a post-AIG-implosion emergency rate cut?  Or do they cut rates as part of an unspoken deal that if they cut tomorrow, the surviving banks can come up with the requisite bailout capital by Tuesday night? 

It's poker, and I've got no idea who blinks first.

As for GS and JPM partnering up with WM and WB?  Problem is, WM (and probably WB) would probably sink 'em.  The only reason BAC/MER was taken seriously as a viable combination was because BAC's got enough depositor assets to bankroll MER's losses through the next couple of years.  WM, not so much.  Even BAC's shotgun MERriage is seen as barely viable -- after all was said and done, MER closed all of one cent higher than it did on Friday.  The entire 70% "premium" in the deal was evaporated in just one trading session.

So, who's going to partner up with GS or JPM?  Gotta be someone with good retail banking presence and depositor base, but not a lot of subprime/alt-A exposure.  There really aren't that many banks out there that are both big enough and still stable enough to fit those criteria.  WFC?

Maybe it's not just poker, it's also musical chairs.

Agreed that Merrill and BofA could fit together.  But there is no business for the forseeable future for Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley - no bonds to underwrite, no IPOs, no M&A, and certainly no ABS/MBS market (which was HUGE).

For survival, I believe they will have to partner with someone.  As you mention, FooBar, they need the deposits to offset slow periods like the BofA/Merrill merger.

Wells is the last big bank, who may look to partner up.  First Morgan Stanley will have to be pummelled a bit.  However, they have minimal subprime exposure.

And I agree that Wamu is nasty (though I am long shares at $1.80) and Wachovia may be nasty too.  Especially, with other mortgage products declining such as Alt-A and Commercial Real Estate.

If if comes out that AIG's shares are diluted from this Fed bridge-loan or it is a conservatorship, then we may be back to hammering bank stocks including GS (which should be below $100 IMO), MS, and UBS.

Wells can swoop in and grab MS when it is cheap.

At least oil is falling!!!  Hopefully, the sky is not falling.

Yep.  With Fitch and S&P downgrading AIG's debt after hours on Monday, AIG's now on the clock.  Stick a fork in 'em, they're done unless they can come up with $70B in the next 2-3 days.  Maybe Buffett comes in and saves the day, but I can't imagine he'd do it until after the fit's hit the shan and he can get the whole thing for pennies on the dollar.  (OK, since we're already at "pennies on the dollar", how about tenths of pennies on the dollar :)

Fed meeting and rate announcement is tomorrow (Tuesday), which only adds another unknown into the mix.  Do they hold rates steady and save their last round of ammo for a post-AIG-implosion emergency rate cut?  Or do they cut rates as part of an unspoken deal that if they cut tomorrow, the surviving banks can come up with the requisite bailout capital by Tuesday night? 

It's poker, and I've got no idea who blinks first.

As for GS and JPM partnering up with WM and WB?  Problem is, WM (and probably WB) would probably sink 'em.  The only reason BAC/MER was taken seriously as a viable combination was because BAC's got enough depositor assets to bankroll MER's losses through the next couple of years.  WM, not so much.  Even BAC's shotgun MERriage is seen as barely viable -- after all was said and done, MER closed all of one cent higher than it did on Friday.  The entire 70% "premium" in the deal was evaporated in just one trading session.

So, who's going to partner up with GS or JPM?  Gotta be someone with good retail banking presence and depositor base, but not a lot of subprime/alt-A exposure.  There really aren't that many banks out there that are both big enough and still stable enough to fit those criteria.  WFC?

Maybe it's not just poker, it's also musical chairs.


M-I-C-K-EY-M-O-U-S-E!
:D

M-I-C-K-EY-M-O-U-S-E!
:D


Done!

(But what does DIS have to do with it? :)

The Mickey Mouse portfolio covers three banks (MI, C, ane KEY), a cigarette and food giant (MO), a cheat to squeeze in a Toronto-traded fund that holds uranium miners (TSE:U), a major US telco (S), and a the NYSE-listed ADR of a major European energy producer (E).

MI C KEY MO U S E!

If the world comes to an end, people are still going to need to smoke, eat, heat their homes, and call their friends to whine about how much money they've lost on the financial half of the portfolio.  If the world doesn't come to an end, the financials are already pricing in half an apocalypse's worth of hell, and could bounce sharply over the next week.  Weight it by market cap, and you'd have 2/3 of your money in defensive food and energy plays, and 1/3 of your money in suicidally-risky financials.  Not an entirely silly set of stocks to hold, as long as you can afford to lose about 90% of your investment as the world economy comes to a grinding bloody halt.

Disclosure:  No positions in securities mentioned, and does it look like investment advice?  :)

Done!

(But what does DIS have to do with it? :)

The Mickey Mouse portfolio covers three banks (MI, C, ane KEY), a cigarette and food giant (MO), a cheat to squeeze in a Toronto-traded fund that holds uranium miners (TSE:U), a major US telco (S), and a the NYSE-listed ADR of a major European energy producer (E).


If the world comes to an end, people are still going to need to smoke, eat, heat their homes, and call their friends to whine about how much money they've lost on the financial half of the portfolio.  If the world doesn't come to an end, the financials are already pricing in half an apocalypse's worth of hell, and could bounce sharply over the next week.  Weight it by market cap, and you'd have 2/3 of your money in defensive food and energy plays, and 1/3 of your money in suicidally-risky financials.  Not an entirely silly set of stocks to hold, as long as you can afford to lose about 90% of your investment as the world economy comes to a grinding bloody halt.

Disclosure:  No positions in securities mentioned, and does it look like investment advice?  :)


I dunno about calling your friends to whine after all the telecoms go belly up.  Mebby you can string two frozen OJ cans together like we used to do fer a rainy day game...

I dunno about calling your friends to whine after all the telecoms go belly up.  Mebby you can string two frozen OJ cans together like we used to do fer a rainy day game...


802.11b + pringles can + ad-hoc networking + solar cells + hand-hacked battery packs = mesh network that doesn't rely upon ISPs, nor upon manufacturer-specific laptop batteries.  If all you have is a bunch of solar cells and an off-the-shelf-laptop, you'll be good for at least 1000-2000 hours of actual use, and that's ignoring the possibilities afforded by lower-bandwidth solutions such as those offered by HAMs who are familiar with packet radio.  Either option (Ham/packet radio or a cantenna-based ad-hoc mesh network) should be good for at least 10-20 years without telcos.  The limiting factor is the long-term reliability and servicability of the laptops.  With write-once optical storage devices and/or solid state drives, plus a couple of spare laptops to cannibalize for parts, that could be nearly indefinite.

If I'd been thinking about what to do during a day sufficiently rainy that my local telco had gone belly-up, of course.

http://afp.google.com/media/ALeqM5i2I47mud8PNsjzt9ZzXr1pNh3_hA?size=l

Not a photoshop. 

Source: An Agence France-Presse photographer shot it during the Senate hearings today, and someone mirrored it here in case the AFP/Google link goes away.

When I am declared emperor, I will find the person who held up that sign, and appoint that person as Secretary of the Treasury!

(This picture needs to go viral, and it needs to go viral now :)

802.11b + pringles can + ad-hoc networking + solar cells + hand-hacked battery packs = mesh network that doesn't rely upon ISPs, nor upon manufacturer-specific laptop batteries.  If all you have is a bunch of solar cells and an off-the-shelf-laptop, you'll be good for at least 1000-2000 hours of actual use, and that's ignoring the possibilities afforded by lower-bandwidth solutions such as those offered by HAMs who are familiar with packet radio.  Either option (Ham/packet radio or a cantenna-based ad-hoc mesh network) should be good for at least 10-20 years without telcos.  The limiting factor is the long-term reliability and servicability of the laptops.  With write-once optical storage devices and/or solid state drives, plus a couple of spare laptops to cannibalize for parts, that could be nearly indefinite.

If I'd been thinking about what to do during a day sufficiently rainy that my local telco had gone belly-up, of course.

You stepped in what?
???

This is getting ugly folks.  Even with a 50 bp Fed rate cut, that does not guarantee mortgage rates will fall much.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20081006/ap_on_re_us/bodies_found

This is getting ugly folks.  Even with a 50 bp Fed rate cut, that does not guarantee mortgage rates will fall much.


In other news today, Iceland just melted. 

Australia cuts rates by 100bp (a couple of hours ago) and the Dow futures go up 100.

The irony is that after two weeks of Congressional dithering, we're in a situation where we either get a globally-coordinated 100bp rate cut by this time next week, or we all end up eating catfood before Paulson can spend the first penny of his $700B.  The only consolation is that if we're all eating catfood, the Congressmen who dithered for two weeks while the credit markets burned won't last long enough to spend the first penny of the $150B in bribes they were offered to pass it.  We all go down the toilet bowl.

The Aussie bank's move suggests that the smart money's right about a globally-coordinated rate cut.  It may not save the world, but it'll buy us a tradeable rally and few more weeks.  That's more than I'd hoped for this afternoon.

Now Playing: KMFDM, From Here On Out (2003, WW III)

LOL.  It is crazy.  I think we are seeing a hedge fund revolution.  They get what they want by flexing their muscles (AKA pushing the stock market down).  They are twisting Bernanke's arm to cut rates at least 50 bps.  Until that happens, the market will continue to plumment.  And shorts will be in soon.  YIKES!

One currency is gonna emerge dominant on the upswing, but it ain't gonna be USD, so get used to a lower standard of living folks, and I don't mean just going the Florida for vacation instead of Aruba.  I mean, get used to not having a lot of the good food and nice stuff we've just taken for granted for four generations!
:o

Of course we are placing the blame on the wrong people.  It isn't Wall Street that got us into this mess

Neil Cavuto of Fox News has gone on record as saying "Loaning to minorities and risky folks is a disaster," during discussions of what precipitated our economy's meltdown. And he is hardly the only one singing in this chorus of blame.

You know that he will be joined in this opinion by anyone looking to shift the blame

Of course it is not fully Wall Street.  The government did not regulate the 600 trillion?? CDS market OR the mortgage market.  What ever happened to Predatory Lending guidelines with mortgages.  They went out the window too.

Not to mention Bill Clinton signing the HUD law into effect 6 months before he left office which forced towns to include low income housing.  And of course, all those people with 400 credit scores buying 500k McMansions knew they were wrong.

Ummm, your credit score is 400 because you dont pay your bills!!!!!!

I have said this for 3 years.  I left the mortgage busniess 3 years ago because I knew it would blow up.  I was about 1.5 years early.  And I am a little guy and I knew it - Harvard and Wall Street brainiacs knew it too.

They looked the other way because Real Estate had the highest yields - when bundled into CDOs and such.  Most were caught with their pants down with these securities.  Goldman Sachs and some hedge funds, knew better and got out early.

They looked the other way because Real Estate had the highest yields - when bundled into CDOs and such.  Most were caught with their pants down with these securities.  Goldman Sachs and some hedge funds, knew better and got out early.


And some of us who saw it coming, figured that most banks and insurance companies wouldn't be stupid enough to hold this crap on their books.  Figured that it'd all be foisted off into small town pension plans and other relatively unsophisticated institutional investors.  How wrong we were -- the crap was on everyone's books, and as it imploded, it took the rest of the financial system down with it.

http://img397.imageshack.us/img397/3559/less9000ub9.jpg

And the Dow?  Another 7% gone, putting it at... UNDER NINE THOUSAND.

Asian markets -10% overnight, and Dow futures (as of this posting) are -250.  This weekend's summit meeting will likely end like all the others -- some sort of "unprecedented" gesture, a 1% bounce up, and another 5-10% down.  Repeat the pattern every day until the markets close, the banks (which will be partially nationalized a few days from now, and completely nationalized a few weeks from now) close, the truckers stop hauling food and fuel into the cities (because the truckers that supply gas stations with fuel can't get paid, and the refiners that refine the fuel also aren't getting paid), and we all start carving each other up for food 72 hours later.  Every city will look like post-Katrina New Orleans. 

The train's just gone into the tunnel.  Welcome to the third part of Atlas Shrugged, except in our version there's no John Galt, and for that matter, there's no Gulch either.

"There is no means of avoiding the final collapse of a boom brought about by credit expansion. The alternative is only whether the crisis should come sooner as a result of a voluntary abandonment of further credit expansion, or later as a final and total catastrophe of the currency system involved."
  - Ludwig Von Mises

The credit markets have been screaming "Just gimme a fix.  I want a fix" for weeks.

Every unprecedented intervention from rate cuts, a $300B stimulus package, more rate cuts, the nationalization of Fannie, Freddie, and AGI, the short selling bans, TSLF, commercial paper insurance, a $700B bailout package, a globally-coordinated set of rate cuts, and today the partial nationalization of British banks, and this weekend, the partial nationalization of US banks and some sort of Euro-wide intervention?

"They go around looking younger for a few days... then they need more." 

For the past two weeks, it hasn't been days.  The bounces have been measured in hours.

This is endgame.  And the endgame, as William S. Burroughs reminds us, is this:

Break. It. All. Down.

Now Playing: Ministry, Just One Fix (WSB), 1992.

The banks are proud to have it on their books, it lets us know their priorities.


And that Von Mises was a baaadddaasss mofo!
:D

And that Von Mises was a baaadddaasss mofo! :D


(Shut yo mouf... I'm jus' talkin' 'bout Mises! :)

Hey, this is a PG-rated board.  The other candidate track was the last three minutes of Stigmata.  The 9:31 live version off In Case You Didn't Feel Like Shutting Up.  18 years since it was recorded in 1990, but at least the line about you-know-who and his spouse still applies.

I'll probably have that at top volume when I try to haul ass at triple-digit speeds (in better economic times, Jesus did build my hotrod) out of the burning cities.  I won't make it -- the gangs will probably have all the roads monitored and spiked/caltropped looking for escaping urbanites -- but at least I'll go out in style. 

No real regrets.  The last ten years were good to me.  I did better than most people did.  I did better than 3/4 of Americans did, and yes, I was keeping track of which quartile/quintile/decile I was in every step of the way.  It was a good run.  If Bullwinkle can pull a rabbit out of his hat ("but that trick never works") this weekend or at any time over the next few weeks, it's possible that I could do very well.  Hope, however, is not an investment strategy.  The smart money's not on the burning cities, because there's no way to collect on such a bet.  The smart money's already long gone.  Distance, land, and private armed guards, minimum entry fee $10M.

In Case You Didn't Feel Like Throwing Up

In Case You Didn't Feel Like Throwing Up


From Friday:

Where Do We Go From Here?

We're not dead yet, and this article gives a good case for why we probably won't implode -- but it also outlines some pretty scary signs on the horizon.

To use a metaphor, we're walking down a railroad track in a fog -- there are lights ahead that are definitely those of oncoming trains.  We just don't know whether the trains are on our track, or whether the trains are on the track that we're preparing to jump to.  We may jump from one track to another -- only to find that we jumped into the path of a second (or third) train, and that the tracks adjacent to us are now occupied by a 100 mile-an-hour wall of steel.  We may already be in such a situation, in which case it's already too late; we just don't know it yet.

The situation changes hourly, not daily.  Sunday is pivotal.  If the G7/G20 can scrape together enough capital to guarantee interbank lending (and recapitalize banks via direct share purchases, diluting shareholders, potentially enriching taxpayers, but saving the system and in so doing producing a better outcome than total collapse), we might survive another week.  Saturday's rumor mill was sorta promising, but so far all we've got is platitudes about how everyone's aware of how urgent the situation is.  If all we get is a more of the same on Sunday, the market implodes on Monday morning, and it'll be time to stock up on canned goods, water, ammo, and to fill the gas tank.  When farmers and truckers can't haul food from the country to the city, the cities fail.

Foo Bar, good post. 

GREAT rally today!!!  Well, we survived another couple days.  The good news is that the US appears to be in better shape than many other countries.  Or so they tell us.

My concern - State governments are starting to fail.  California supposedly only has 3 months of cash left.  As home values throughout the country fall, so will state revenues.

Honestly, I dont think the government has enough cash to bail EVERYONE out or the dollar will be serivously devalued.  Forgive my pessimism, but it is getting pricey.  Between AIG ($120), GE Commercial Paper ($100), 9 Banks ($250), then the unknowns MBS, Commercial Real Estate, Auto Loans, State Governments, etc it will be nasty.

Bill Gates, though no economist, thinks umemployment will hit 9%.  Even if it hits 7.5% to 8% I think it will be nasty.

Of course, I hope I am wrong.

There is an underlying problem that some haven't considered.  The quality of construction of some of the places that were thrown up practically overnight.  There are many unscrupulous contractors, more than anyone would want to believe, who built structures that will be slowly deteriorating within the next ten years. This will, again, decrease the value of the properties.  People will have homes that have been devalued, that they will not be able to get home improvement loans on because they will never be able to get equity on what they have.

Yeah, they have to STOP building homes.  There are alot of existing homes on the market.  This time IT IS DIFFERENT.  Economists are calling for 8.5%-9% unemployment next year.

HERE IS THE DILEMNA.  In past recessions (especially in 2001) if someone lost a job and could not afford their home, they could sell it.  Nowadays, if someone loses their job and cannot afford their home, their house will take many months to sell.  Homes are taking 9 - 10 months to sell in some areas. 

Stop all the whining biatches!

You bought that little rancheroo for 300 grand to be in the Valley, now she's worth only $150, but you STILL owe the man for 300G!


http://www.inthe00s.com/smile/11/cwm10.gif

Stop all the whining biatches!

You bought that little rancheroo for 300 grand to be in the Valley, now she's worth only $150, but you STILL owe the man for 300G!


http://www.inthe00s.com/smile/11/cwm10.gif


I sold my home last year.  I saw this coming since I worked in mortgages!!!!!  I am waiting for the right moment to steal a house out from someone very desparate!!!

I sold my home last year.  I saw this coming since I worked in mortgages!!!!!  I am waiting for the right moment to steal a house out from someone very desparate!!!



That's why you never act desperate no matter how desperate you are!  (Unless it's honest-to-god your last option!)
::)

This is why y'all need to buy mobile homes.  They lose value anyway so it doesn't phase you at all. ;) ;D

This is why y'all need to buy mobile homes.  They lose value anyway so it doesn't phase you at all. ;) ;D

Can you find me one with a storm cellar?  I don't wanna find myself floating down river on a formica table top!
???

Can you find me one with a storm cellar?  I don't wanna find myself floating down river on a formica table top!
???


Where's your sense of adventure, Max? :D

Where's your sense of adventure, Max? :D


Yeah, maybe I can get a FEMA trailer treated with formaldehyde.  They usually wait 'till you're dead already to fill you with that stuff, but you might as well get a headstart!
http://www.inthe00s.com/smile/03/couto.gif

;D

You bought that little rancheroo for 300


300, you say?  This isn't about anyone's BS house.  This isn't about my BS tradiing account or my BS 401(k).  It's bigger than all of that now.  They can close the markets like they did in Russia, Brasil, and Iceland.

http://img368.imageshack.us/img368/6420/tradeinhellqk9.jpg

There was a science fiction novel in which, after dozens of failed economic plans, all of which had only served to make the problem worse, the government finally asked a guy named John Galt what he'd do.  He told them to get out of his way.  They pulled the plug on him.  That didn't work either.